Today is the day...

Most of the bugs are worked out over on the new site, so I guess there's no good reason to keep double posting.

Update your bookmarks!

Wampum has formally moved to:

Old Wampum archives will remain on Blogspot until I can figure out how to move them without mangling them, as I did yesterday. [Note to self: Don't attempt complicated technical maneuverers when feeling like death-on-toast.]

Krugman explains it all

If you're at all the neophyte econoholic I am, deflation is one of those concepts you sort of grasp, but know there's a whole lot more you don't get. Fortunately, that's where Professor Krugman comes in. In his latest column, he not only tackles deflation, but cues us in on the dangers of a good old fashion, but little known concern:

The particular type of quagmire to worry about has a name: liquidity trap. As the I.M.F. report explains, the most important reason to fear deflation is that it can push an economy into a liquidity trap, or deepen the distress of an economy already caught in the trap.

Here's how it works, in theory. Ordinarily, deflation — a general fall in the level of prices — is easy to fight. All the central bank (in our case, the Federal Reserve) has to do is print more money, and put it in the hands of banks. With more cash in hand, banks make more loans, interest rates fall, the economy perks up and the price level stops falling.

But what if the economy is in such a deep malaise that pushing interest rates all the way to zero isn't enough to get the economy back to full employment? Then you're in a liquidity trap: additional cash pumped into the economy — added liquidity — sits idle, because there's no point in lending money out if you don't receive any reward. And monetary policy loses its effectiveness.

Once an economy is caught in such a trap, it's likely to slide into deflation — and nasty things (what the I.M.F. report calls "adverse dynamics") begin to happen. Falling prices induce people to postpone their purchases in the expectation that prices will fall further, depressing demand today.

Also, deflation usually means falling incomes as well as falling prices. In a deflationary economy, a family that borrows money to buy a house may well find itself having to pay fixed mortgage payments out of a shrinking paycheck; a business that borrows to finance investment may well find itself having to pay a fixed interest bill out of a shrinking cash flow.

In other words, deflation discourages borrowing and spending, the very things a depressed economy needs to get going. And when an economy is in a liquidity trap, the authorities can't offset the depressing effects of deflation by cutting interest rates. So a vicious circle develops. Deflation leads to rising unemployment and falling capacity utilization, which puts more downward pressure on prices and wages, which accelerates deflation, which makes the economy even more depressed. The prospect of such a "deflationary spiral," rather than the mere prospect of deflation, is what scares the I.M.F. — and it should.

One of the things which strike me as eerie each week when I run through the 1991 news archives is that stories of Japan, whose economy made our manufacturing sector tremble, our trade protectionists rail to the point of bigotry and our President chuck on the Japanese Prime Minister, filled every financial section in every paper, day after day. They were our largest competitor in the sprint for the world's markets, and we were prepared for that race to last decades.

How, in just a few short years, times have changed. The meltdown of the Japanese economy in the late '90s seems to have erased a great deal of our national not-always-so-friendly rivalry, which has shifted elsewhere (China?) For many right-wing media outlets always happy to whip up anti-Japanese sentiment in the 80's, the Japanese are now too much of a non-entity to even bother with. What the dismantling of the Soviet Union did for the political Cold War, the collapse of the Japanese market did for the economic Cold War.

Is it possible that the US could be following in the footsteps of Japan? Krugman approaches that question hypothetically. I, on the other hand, waiting for take our Chinese, picked up a local real estate booklet. One thing I remember of the time I spent in Japan after finishing my undergrad study was the Tokyo real estate boom. I was shocked to see prices have skyrocketed in the Portland area, just in the past few months since I last picked up one of these flyers. At the same time, layoffs are on the rise, and most likely will continue, with pending budget cuts and the exporting of more manufacturing and technology jobs overseas. While a crash of the housing market is only one piece of a deflating market, seeing it so close at hand was rather startling.

The one piece of good economic news in Maine. With US dollar falling against the Canadian, maybe the Quebecois tourists will return for the first time in a decade. That is, if the Bushies don't stop all Francophones at the border.

Moving the lodge!

I can't believe it, I finally figured it out. Movable Type, that is. I'll be posting on both sites until I'm sure I've got it down, as well as getting all my archives moved over. But my new home is..(drumroll, please)...

wampum.wabanaki.net

Wabanaki.net is one of the few Indian-owned and operated hosting sites, so it'll be great to be back on rez again.

(note: I'm finally able to begin fix my blogroll which was eaten not once, but three times, by Blogger. My regrets to all my friends who mysteriously disappeared over the past month - I'm hoping Movable Type is not so buggy.)

Whodda thought?

While doing my early morning deja vu research, I ran across this column that I thought too good not to post all by itself:

QUEEN ELIZABETH AND THE BUSH BLACK SHEEP

Donnie Radcliffe, Washington Post
Column: WASHINGTON WAYS
May 21, 1991

The Queen of England got two George Bushes for the price of one when she arrived at the White House last Tuesday. What she didn't know was that the president's eldest son, George Walker Bush, so unpredictable that the family never knows what he'll say in polite society, was under strict orders from his parents not to address the queen. Somehow, though, he and the queen got to talking anyway. About boots, the new pair he was wearing, made especially for the occasion. Usually he has them printed with something like "Texas Rangers." Was that on these boots, the queen wanted to know.

"No, ma'am," George replied. "God Save the Queen."

The queen thought that so jolly good that she further fueled their exchange with another question. Was he the black sheep in the family? she inquired.

"I guess so," he admitted.

"All families have them," observed the queen.

"Who's yours?" asked George.

"Don't answer that!" cut in Barbara Bush, appearing from out of nowhere.

And in her queenly manner as she walked away, Elizabeth II did not.

I'll see you on that vote, and raise you one cake...

Atrios, challenging W to a winner take all (votes) wager, writes:

The Bush administration is claiming that there will average 306,000 net new jobs per month over the next 18 month. If that happens, I promise to vote for him. Now, what will he promise if it doesn't?

I thought about putting up all kinds of pretty charts and graphs, but you know, I'm just too damn sick today with some psuedo-SARS bug, so I just crunched the numbers from the BLS and here's the bottom line: Clinton, the job-making machine of this half-century only averaged 268,000 jobs a month. If Bush can do 306,000 jobs a month, I'll not only vote for him, but jump out a cake at his inaugural.

And it's not even Flashback Friday yet

I realize that Josh Bolten has been lurking around the West Wing for the first few years of Bush Deux, where his duties ran towards secretly developing the Office of Homeland Security, intervening with the Treasury Department for Enron, and figuring out how to sell steel tariffs.

But this move shines a spotlight on a man known to jealously guard his, and the Administration's, privacy:

Bolten to Be Named OMB Director
Bush's Intensely Private Deputy Chief of Staff to Replace Daniels

By Mike Allen
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, May 22, 2003

President Bush plans to name Joshua B. Bolten, a deputy White House chief of staff, as his new budget director, administration officials said yesterday.

Bolten is to replace Mitchell E. Daniels Jr., who announced earlier this month that he plans to return to Indiana in June, probably to run for governor next year.

Bolten, a silver-haired former Goldman Sachs executive, is soft-spoken and intensely private. His appointment as director of the Office of Management and Budget will bring a major shift in style to the job and appears to be an effort to improve White House relations with lawmakers, many of whom were rankled by the blunt, aggressive style of Daniels.

Ironically, this position is much closer to his previous one in the first Bush Administration:

Appointment of Joshua B. Bolten as Deputy Assistant to the President and Director of the Office of Legislative Affairs
March 18, 1992

The President today announced his intention to appoint Joshua B. Bolten, of the District of Columbia, to be Deputy Assistant to the President and Director of the Office of Legislative Affairs. He would succeed Stephen T. Hart, who will be joining the Department of Transportation as a Deputy Assistant Secretary for Industry Liaison.

Since 1989, Mr. Bolten has served as General Counsel at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. Previously he served as international trade counsel to the U.S. Senate Committee on Finance. In 1984 - 85, prior to joining the finance committee, Mr. Bolten was in private practice in international trade law with the Washington, DC, office of O'Melveny & Myers. From 1981 to 1984, he worked in the Office of the Legal Adviser at the Department of State, providing legal counsel primarily to the Bureau of Inter-American Affairs. He also served as executive assistant to the Director, Kissinger Commission on Central America. During 1980 - 81, Mr. Bolten served as a law clerk at the U.S. District Court in San Francisco.

When I first found this biographical piece, I didn't read it very closely. Later, as I was writing this post, heading in different direction altogether, I noticed Bolten's tenure with State, and his involvement with Inter-American Affairs in particular, during the early 80's. Those were the years just prior to Iran-Contra, when US Central American policy was more focused on a peasant uprising in the tiny country of El Salvador. I spent my first years in college under the tutelage of Bob White, Carter's final ambassador to El Salvador, a man who saw 30 year foreign service career evaporate after he interfered with CIA funding of D'Aubuisson's death squads. That Bolten cut his political eye teeth in the BIAA during that time sends shivers up my spine: Even more disconcerting is that he is the son of long-time CIA insider, Seymour Bolten, who also happened to be George H.W. Bush's assistant director for operations in the mid-'70's. The OMB has been tainted for years by the Mitch Daniels-Eli Lilly-George HW Bush connection, which included Bush's tenure on the Lilly Board of Directors, being sanctioned by the Supreme Court while VP for lobbying the IRS on behalf of Lilly and other drug companies, and choosing Lilly-heir Dan Quayle as his running mate. Having another OMB director with dubious Bush Sr. ties makes me want to pull out my tinfoil hat.

Time to buy stock in Reynold's Wrap.

Unemployment claims on the way up again

After two weeks where the number appeared to be on the decrease, new jobless were up sharply again in this morning's report:

In the week ending May 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 428,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 421,000. The 4-week moving average was 433,000, a decrease of 7,750 from the previous week's revised average of 440,750.

Of course, last week's figure was once again revised upwards from 417,000 by 4K jobs, so the week-to-week pre-revised increase was 11K.

Update: As I speculated last week, layoffs in the public sector are increasing due to budget cuts: New claims for federal employees were up 16% last week. I suspect that number will only grow in the weeks to come.

Rats deserting a sinking ship?

Something to wish for, but somehow I doubt that is the case:

Whitman, E.P.A. Administrator, Submits Resignation
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
May 21, 2003

WASHINGTON -- Christie Whitman, who has often been at odds with the White House over environmental issues, submitted her resignation Wednesday as administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency.

Whitman said in a letter to President Bush that she was leaving to spend time with family.

"As rewarding as the past two-and-a-half years have been for me professionally, it is time to return to my home and husband in New Jersey, which I love just as you do your home state of Texas," she wrote Bush.

With Whitman's departure, Bush loses one of the most prominent women in his Cabinet -- a moderate former New Jersey governor selected by the president to help soften his image as a political conservative, particularly on environmental issues.

Whitman had a history of clashing with the White House, starting with the president's abrupt decision to withdraw from the international global warming treaty. She had been the administration's point person in rolling back environmental protections initiated by previous administrations.

As his re-election campaign gears up, Bush's senior staff and advisers consider the next few months as optimum time to leave the government; otherwise, they will be expected to remain aboard until after the 2004 election. White House press secretary Ari Fleischer announced Monday that he will resign in July.

I suspect that the Clear Skies initiative had something to do with her leaving. As a former popular governor, having your former colleagues in the Northeast, both Democrats and Republicans, file suit against your office, and even hold you personally responsible for allowing the dismantling of 30 years of good environmental law, can't sit well. Then again, there's a little nagging question as to whether Whitman's resignation is at all related to that of Mitch Daniel's, and Senator Barbara Boxer's call for an investigation of the EPA's delay in the release, and alteration of data, in the Children's Health Report back in February. If you recall, sources within the EPA leaked information that Daniel's had requested the report, altered it so as to downplay the dangers of mercury exposure, and only sent it back for release by Whitman when threatened by whistleblowers. Any possibility that a scandal is about to blow?

Oh, one can only hope.

Republican cannibals

Give the Republican Party controlling power over all three branches of the federal government, and do they restrict their attacks to Congressional Democrats?

No. They begin to eat their own.

First, they use the radical Club For Growth to hammer fiscally-moderate Senators Snowe and Voinovich over their opposition to Bush's tax cut debt increase plan, painting them as anti-patriotic and obstructionist.

Now that the plan has passed the Senate, albeit as a smaller, much "gimmicked" piece, House leaders are not content. Speaker Dennish Hastert and Leader Tom Delay are looking to once again stick it to one of their own, Senate Finance Committee Chair, Chuck Grassely. Seems the House tax hawks are still not thrilled with the deal Grassley cut with Snowe and Voinovich in order to even get the plan out of committee, and want to sidestep any future control he might wield in the upcoming conference committee.

Under one strategy being considered, formal negotiations between the House and Senate would never be started. Instead, the House would take up the Senate- passed bill, make changes, and then send it back to the Senate.

If the Senate disagreed with the House's changes, it could send the measure - with further revisions - back to the House. The process could continue until both chambers agreed to a plan, explained aides and lobbyists familiar with the strategy.

Conservative Republican and leadership aides said the strategy is just one of several being considered. Still, the aides said, the proposal has merits.

If the tax bill were allowed to go to a formal House-Senate conference committee, Grassley would be one of four Senate Republicans doing the negotiations. Grassley would be even more powerful in these particular negotiations given a House-Senate tradition of alternating control of conference negotiations. This would be Grassley's turn to chair the negotiations.

In contrast, if a bill were being "ping-ponged" between the House and Senate, Grassley would be just one of 51 Republican votes on the Senate floor, and Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn., would control the time and tempo of debate, aides and lobbyists explained.

Seems the crux of the matter is that any bill that came out of a conference wouldn't be big enough for the House Republicans, who obviously have drank way too much supply-side kool-aid. Of course, thinking that bypassing the head of the Finance committee, humiliating him in the process, leads me to believe they've lost their copy of "How to Make Friends and Influence People [of your own Party]". Somehow I don't see passage of any ping-ponged tax cut plan being a slam-dunk for House Republicans.

Coming out of the MMR closet

At some point today, in the peer-reviewed medical journal, International Pediatrics (published by Miami Children’s Hospital) the article described in the following abstract will appear (link via Schafer Autism Report):

Title: Pediatric MMR Vaccination Safety
Authors: Dr Mark R. Geier and David A. Geier
Journal: International Pediatrics

A new study published on-line in the medical Journal International Pediatrics on May 20th 2003 examines the possible link between MMR vaccination and serious neurological disease including autism, cerebellar ataxia (loss of co-ordination due to damage to the cerebellum, at the back of the brain), mental retardation and permanent brain damage.

The authors of this study used the data-base established and maintained by the Centers for Disease Controls and Prevention (CDC) in the US known as VAERS (Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System).

VAERS is designed to act as an early warning system for detection of adverse events to childhood vaccines, occurring in the first 30 days after vaccination.

The authors compared the incidence of reports of serious neurological diseases following MMR vaccine with the incidence of the same serious neurological diseases following the mercury-containing DTP vaccine.

The results find a highly significant association between the Measles, Mumps and Rubella combined vaccination (MMR) and autism as compared with the diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis combined vaccine (DTP).

The increased risk for autism following MMR was over 5 times that for DTP. The risk of other serious neurological diseases was also increased with MMR.

The paper identified reactions in a relatively small number of children compared to the numbers vaccinated.

Whilst this paper suffers from the usual limitations of passive surveillance, it still marks a significant milestone in the ongoing MMR debate by clearly flagging up potential problems.

It could be argued that the noted increase occurred because doctors and parents became aware of the potential link between MMR and autism in 1998 following the publication of Wakefield and colleagues in the Lancet.

In response to this possibility, the authors have shown in a separate analysis, that the number of reported cases of autism following primary childhood MMR vaccination went down from 52 cases in the four years up to the end of 1998, to 29 cases in the following 4 years. A reporting bias does not appear to account for their findings.

I first saw Dr. Mark Geier on C-SPAN during his testimony last fall before the House Committee on Reform. He described in part his experience working with the VAERS data, or more precisely, maneuvering the immense number of obstacles the CDC erected to prevent the use of such data for epidemiological vaccine research. Geier testified as to how the records were only available for a couple of hours per day; no copies were allowed, no laptops, only pencil and paper in the reading room. Getting permission to even access the data took years of battling bureaucracy. Despite the difficulties, the father and son research team were able to amass enough information for two studies, one on thimerosal published a few months back, and the present one on MMR.

While I have adamantly supported expanded unbiased research on the impact of high levels of thimerosal in vaccines during the 1990s, it was never due to personal reasons. Although I have two sons with autism, neither were exposed to more than one shot with the mercury-based preservative. Well, that's not completely honest: my motivation was in part personal. For years, much of the medical and scientific community have patronized parents who claimed their children were injured by thimerosal. The parents were viewed as overwrought and irrational, easily manipulated in their grief by charlatans and trial lawyers to believe that they were victims of a pharmaceutical-government conspiracy and cover-up of a perfectly safe, and even beneficial, product. The public, through drug company-sponsored studies fed to the media, was offered this negative view of vaccine critics. Prior to my exposure to autism, I, as a rational scientist, bought the marketing ploy, and can even remember berating parents who were concerned with vaccination as silly and superstitious.

However, as more studies have emerged implicating mercury in neurological damage in children, those parents seem less and less hysterical, and more like normal, rational, concerned parents enraged over government complicity in their children's exposure to harmful toxins.

A similar pattern of disinformation of possible dangers and marginalization of its critics developed regarding the MMR vaccine. So much so that many of us who watched our children sicken and emotionally withdraw after the jab were hesitant to express our concerns openly. Losing our happy, chatty, normal toddlers was painful enough; being publicly castigated as hysterical, beyond the pale.

Thus, when the public, even some segments of the media, became more open to the possibility that there may in fact be genuine concern over thimerosal, those of us sitting on the MMR bench had reason to hope. And research such as that published by Geier today makes me think, hmm, maybe it's safe to stick my head out, just a bit?

Sadly, with every bit of good (as in vindicating, not really "good") news, bad news seems to follow. Back in April, with the help of many in the Lefty blogosphere, I was able to get the word out that Senator Frist had resurrected his pet legislation immunizing campaign contributor Eli Lilly from lawsuits over thimerosal. Apparently, the phone lines lit up for Senators on the HELP committee, and Frist was temporarily thwarted. A second attempt left him again empty-handed, although this time, it was due to vaccine lobbyists pulling the plug on the deal. Well, it's round three.

According to InsideHealthPolicy.com (subscription required, but article available via the Schafer Autism Report):

Senate Republicans are reneging on a key provision of a draft bipartisan agreement on vaccine legislation that would extend the statute of limitations for entering the childhood Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (VICP) from three to six years, according to a congressional source. Senate and House lawmakers are negotiating the bill in a "preconference" to avoid a
deadlock in the Senate health committee and delays in the House, though the House Medicare debate could postpone the VICP conference talks, the source says.

The ranking Democrats rumored to attend the "pre-conference" are Senators Chris Dodd of Connecticut and Ted Kennedy, Massachusetts, and Representative Henry Waxman of California. Calls to these legislators (use the toll-free Congressional switchboard at 1-800-839-5276) urging them not to forgo the extension of the claim period from 3 to 6 years would be greatly appreciated. Our son, Sam, injured by his MMR at 15 months, missed the deadline by two months. So this time, it is personal.

Monday blog powwow

Frank, at I Protest, points his readers to an Alternet article on recent changes in federal voting laws which require personal identification, including photo or SSN, to be checked by the voting officials prior to a person entering a booth. Fraught with possibilities for abuse or mishandling, 2004 throughout the nation could make Florida in 2000 look like a picnic.

And speaking of voting, See the Forest has the latest roundup of voting machine information and links.

Earl, at Prometheus6 shares an email conversation regarding the new emerging corporate police state , no Matrix , uh quasi-military state ... Well, you'll have to see what he finally decides upon yourself.

Crowgirl of the always excellent Magpie introduces us to conspiracy-theory, Canadian-style. Unfortunately, the maligned is Salam Pax, fresh from his war-induced hiatus at WhereIsRaed? Also read about CAT Eyes, predecessor of the controversial TIPS program.

Jeralyn of TalkLeft tells us of a town in California which has thrown down the gauntlet to Ashcroft and outlawed compliance with the Patriot Act.

B.J. at StoutDem has recently discovered the old trick of domain-name speculation. The target? None other than Private Jessica Lynch. Fortunately, I know just the geek guy savvy to the ways of the DNS who may be able to help. But I'll have to wait until he gets home from work.

Steve, at No More Mister Nice Blog has some insight on a possible surprise or two should things on the Supreme Court heat up anytime soon.

Finally, my real life friend Allison has been following the story of Mike's Place. Haven't heard of it? Not surprising, as it's barely made the news on this side of the pond. She posted previously on the subject here and here as well.

Maine - 1, Big Pharma - 0

Maine Wins Case Over Prescription Drugs

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Filed at 10:40 a.m. ET

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Supreme Court on Monday gave a green light to a novel state program to force drug manufacturers to lower prices on prescription drugs, but warned that the program may not survive further court challenges.

The ruling was a defeat for drug makers who claimed that Maine's program, called Maine Rx, violates federal law.

The program, which has never taken effect, would use the state's buying power under the federal Medicaid law to cut drug prices by 25 percent for the working poor, retirees and others who do not receive health coverage or drug benefits through their jobs.

The Supreme Court's ruling does not give Maine what it really wanted, an unqualified endorsement of the drug plan. Instead, the high court said that drug makers did not adequately show why the plan should be prevented from taking effect. It has been on hold pending the court fight.

``By no means will our answer to that question finally determine the validity of Maine's Rx program,'' Justice John Paul Stevens wrote for the court.

Spending on prescription drugs has increased by 15 percent or more annually in recent years, and more than two dozen states had urged the Supreme Court to uphold Maine's effort to hold down the escalation.

Supporters of the Maine program contend it is a response to years of inaction in Congress, which has repeatedly tried and failed to add prescription drug coverage to the federal Medicare program for the elderly.

Labor and retiree groups support the Maine approach.

The Bush administration and business groups and conservative legal organizations sided with the drug industry.

This program was developed by former state senate leader Chellie Pingree, who now heads up Common Cause. Hopefully, this is just the first victory in many such battles against corporate greed.

Blogginxed again

Whenever I play with my blogroll these days, Blogger strikes back a day or two later and deletes at least half of my links. This has happened three times now. I don't know whether to rebuild it, or just wait until I get MT finished. Please don't feel dissed if you've disappeared from my sidebar.

Republican Presidents = Jobs, right?

Wrong.

Last week, jobless benefits, while down slightly to 417K, rang in for the 14th straight week over the benchmark 400K which indicates weakness in the employment sector. Since Republicans like to argue that they are the pro-business and thus pro-growth party, I thought it time to actually check the record.

Although not in the prettiest format, the Department of Labor provides historic statistics dating back at least 40 years, so the numbers weren't difficult to find. Just lots of number crunching, and for each of the last five presidents, three Republican, two Democrat, I was able to calculate the total number of new unemployment claims filed, at this point in their first terms as President.

Even Carter, who is still maligned under "common wisdom" as being an inept President, saw jobless claims total 14 million less than than his successor, Ronald Reagan, and fewer than both the Bushes. Only Clinton had a better record.

Not only is the Bush Administration allowing the US economy to bleed jobs faster than a head wound, its lackeys in the Republican Congress continue to show their unfortunate out-of-work constituents how much they really care by letting unemployment benefits run out for millions of long-term jobseekers.

As always, it's the Democrat who show real compassion:

U.S. Democrats urge extended unemployment benefits
Sat May 17, 2003 11:04 AM ET

WASHINGTON, May 17 (Reuters) - Democrats on Saturday urged President George W. Bush and his fellow Republicans to back a further extension of unemployment benefits for millions of Americans who could lose them at the end of the month.

"Today, there are more than three unemployed workers for every job opening," Michigan Democratic Rep. Sander Levin said in the party's weekly radio address. "It is not compassionate to repeatedly tell those looking for work that the answer is simply 'growth' or 'get a job.'"

The temporary federal program providing unemployment insurance to laid-off workers after they exhaust their state benefits expires on May 31. It has been extended once.

Democrats want to extend it again, but Republicans in the House of Representatives and Senate beat back efforts to add that to the new tax cut bills both recently approved. They say the tax cuts will help jolt the weak economy and create jobs.

Democrats counter that helping unemployed workers will boost the economy more directly than cutting taxes.

"We must stimulate the economy to replace the 2.7 million private-sector jobs lost since President Bush took office, and we must help those out of work through no fault of their own until jobs are available," Levin said.

I know Democrats like to toss around the 2.7 (or 2.6) million jobs lost number, and strictly speaking, it is true that the economy under Bush has lost that number. But I think it's more accurate to offset that number by any monthly increase in employment. Under that scenario, Bush's record on job lost is just under 2 million (1,971,000 to be more precise.) Fortunately, the BLS also provides historic data on job loss and creation back to 1939, so I was able to re-create a snapshot for the same presidents mentioned above, also to this point in their first terms.

George Bush the Younger has surpassed even his idol, Ronald Reagan in the number of jobs he's seen melt away under his watch. Reagan, however, managed to turn that deficit around to a rather wimpy 2.8 million increase by November 1984, namely by pumping billions into defense spending (and running the federal deficit into the ground at the same time.) Bush the Elder, while seeing a few more months of job loss or sluggish growth, was able to come out with 1.6 new jobs by November 1992, not enough to guarantee him another term. Both Clinton and Carter's economies were job making machines. Unfortunately for Carter, other unforeseen events, namely his mishandling of the Iranian hostage situation, sabotaged his positive job growth numbers. People only seem to care about jobs when they don't have them. Gore faced similar voter complacency in his bid for the Presidency in 2000.

The question for Bush is whether he can overcome the deficit, either with real jobs or personal charm. By this point in Reagan's tenure, the economy had stopped hemorrhaging, and was quickly adding jobs. For Bush Junior, the bleeding has barely slowed, with 48,000 jobs lost in April. Will the Bush tax cut be the Band-Aid W. claims it to be? And will Democrats ever get the credit for being the party of growth and fiscal responsibility that they obviously are? History alone will tell.

Flashback Friday once more

Things were relatively low key this week in 1991 - the Queen was in town, and took up much of the print.

THE RECESSION THEY IGNORED
David S. Broder, Washington Post
May 15, 1991

It has taken an uncommonly long time for official Washington to wake up to the fact that the American economy is in rotten shape. But finally that uncomfortable truth is beginning to dawn even on this city

The AFL-CIO has been tapping on the shoulders of its Democratic friends in Congress for months, telling them that unemployment is continuing to rise and more and more people each month are exhausting their jobless benefits.

Now big business is tugging on the coattails of its pals in the...

UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS OUT OF SYNC
Hobart Rowen, Washington Post
May 16, 1991

If you lose your job, you're entitled to get unemployment insurance, right? Wrong. The nation's vaunted unemployment insurance system, crucial as an "automatic stabilizer" for the economy since the Great Depression, has lost its punch. The general public -- and that includes most members of Congress -- is unaware that today many unemployed persons get no benefits at all.

For those who do, the payments are less generous than in the past, are taxed at both federal and state...

FUEL ECONOMY MEASURE SEEMS TO WIN BY LOSING
ARCTIC DRILLING PROSPECTS ALSO SAID TO WANE
Thomas W. Lippman, Washington Post Staff Writer
May 16, 1991

The Senate Energy Committee yesterday rejected competing versions of a measure to force auto makers to improve the fuel economy of their vehicles. But the proposal remains alive, and its chances may have been enhanced by the complicated maneuvering on energy policy.

Delighted lobbyists for environmental organizations said yesterday's votes also diminish the prospects for legislation to permit oil drilling in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. And, according to some senators...

COST OF CARE LEAVES MANY IN US SEEKING BETTER WAY
Richard A. Knox, Boston Globe
May 14, 1991

Plumber Charlie McParland has a gripe millions of Americans can appreciate. Every time his union negotiates an hourly raise, most of it disappears into his health insurance.

In desperation, his union, Plumbers Local No. 12 in Boston, recently dropped its Cadillac coverage through Blue Cross-Blue Shield in favor of a Chevrolet health plan that specifies what doctors and hospitals members must use if they want full payment of their medical bills.

Based on the trajectory of the previous...

BUSH ACCUSED OF USING RACIAL DIVISIONS
GEPHARDT CITES REMARKS ABOUT U.S.-MEXICO FREE TRADE OPPONENTS
John E. Yang, Washington Post
May 14, 1991

House Majority Leader Richard A. Gephardt (D-Mo.) accused President Bush yesterday of seeking political advantage from racial divisions, citing his blocking of a job discrimination bill and his suggestion that prejudice motivated opponents of a U.S.-Mexican free trade agreement

"As we enter the 1992 campaign, the president who preaches racial harmony is practicing racial division," Gephardt said in a speech on the House floor.

In a commencement speech at Hampton University in...

HIGH COURT ALLOWS 48-HOUR CUSTODY WITHOUT CHARGES
Ethan Bronner, Boston Globe
May 14, 1991

WASHINGTON -- The Supreme Court ruled yesterday that suspects arrested without a warrant may generally be kept in custody for up to 48 hours before a court hearing is held on the arrest's validity.

In a 5-4 decision by the court's conservative majority that could affect tens of thousands of arrests every year, Justice Sandra Day O'Connor said the goal was to strike a balance between the rights of individuals to prompt justice and the rights of states to set up their law...

BUSH TO OFFER PLAN URGING STATE REFORM OF MALPRACTICE INSURANCE
Spencer Rich, Washington Post
May 14, 1991

President Bush will send Congress a plan Wednesday to induce state reform of medical malpractice insurance, Vice President Quayle revealed yesterday at a Chicago high school.

The plan is aimed at cutting the use of "defensive" or unnecessary medical practices and preventing doctors from refusing to perform high-risk procedures, administration officials said.

Quayle visited De La Salle High School and two health clinics with Health and Human Services Secretary Louis W. Sullivan...

MIDEAST FOES LIKE PEACE BUT NOT PRICE:
BAKER FINDS DIPLOMACY:
ISRAEL AND SYRIA APPEAR TO BE THROWING UP ROADBLOCKS TO AVOID A CONFERENCE NEITHER ONE REALLY WANTS.
Norman Kempster, Los Angeles Times
May 17, 1991

The overall picture is not really changed by the minor procedural concessions that Israel agreed to make earlier in the day Thursday. There is a growing suspicion that both Israel and Syria are using the now well-known roadblock issues as excuses to avoid a conference that neither side really wants to attend. The Israeli concessions do not bring the matter much closer ...

CHENEY ORDERS SILENCE ON BASE CLOSINGS
Jack Anderson and Dale Van Atta, Washington Post
May 14, 1991

Defense Secretary Richard B. Cheney wants to make sure that everyone in the Pentagon bureaucracy follows the party line on one of the most divisive issues that will come down the pike this year -- the closing of dozens of U.S. military bases to save money

The base-closing process will be a gloomy one that will hurt many states economically, put thousands of people out of work and prompt members of Congress to utter their favorite whine: "Not in my backyard, you...

SURVEY SAYS 80,000 CHILDREN IN STATE HUNGRY LOW INCOMES, INADEQUATE FUNDING OF FOOD PROGRAMS CITED AS CAUSES
Gloria Negri, Boston Globe
May 17, 1991

Nearly 200,000 children under 12 in Massachusetts are affected by hunger, with 80,000 of them described as hungry while 115,000 are at risk of being hungry, according to a survey released yesterday by the Massachusetts Community Childhood Hunger Project.

The statewide study, announced during a news conference at the Westin Hotel, shows that hunger in the commonwealth is more widespread than previously believed and that it affects large numbers of working families of diverse...

AMA GOES ALL OUT FOR HEALTH CARE DEBATE . . .
. . . A FAR CRY FROM ITS FIGHT TO STOP MEDICARE: REPUBLICAN HITS BUSH OVER HEALTH CARE
May 16, 1991
Richard A. Knox, Boston Globe

Jaded Americans who doubt there is substance behind the rhetoric of health care reform should take note of this week's Journal of the American Medical Association, not normally considered an outlet for crusading leftists.

Not only are crusading leftists given plenty of space to detail their prescriptions for rebuilding the US health care system, but the JAMA has brought the right wing and a slew of middle-ground reformers aboard the bandwagon...

KERRY SAYS GOP IS HINDERING CAMPAIGN REFORM
May 15, 1991
Michael K. Frisby, Boston Globe

WASHINGTON -- The battle over campaign finance reform opened on a biting partisan note yesterday, as a leading Democrat accused Republicans of working to prevent any major improvements in the system.

Despite pressures from the Keating Five case, in which five senators were accused of giving special treatment to a big contributor, it was uncertain yesterday whether reformers would win their battle to retain significant spending limits and public financing in the legislation.

[extra credit: Name the Keating Five]

More troubling economic news

Consumer Price Stall Ups Deflation Fears
Fri May 16, 2003 10:26 AM ET
By Eric Burroughs

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Consumer prices excluding energy and food eked ahead at the slowest year-over-year pace in 37 years in April, while the once robust housing market cooled during the month, according to government data that fanned fears of the danger of deflation.

The core Consumer Price Index rose at just a 1.5 percent pace for the 12 months ended in April, its slowest clip since March 1966, the Labor Department said on Friday. The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) was flat for a second straight month -- the first time since 1982 the core index hasn't risen in any two consecutive months.

The overall CPI fell 0.3 percent in April, but like the big drop in wholesale prices reported a day earlier it was driven down by a big drop in oil prices since the start of the Iraq war eased worries of supply disruptions.

The figures raised the prospect of a further slowing in core consumer prices that has investors fearing that deflation, or an extensive decline in prices across the economy, could ensnare the U.S. like it has Japan.

Of additional concern, housing starts slid a surprising 6.8 percent. Building permits were up 1.2%, but that didn't balance out the decline in starts.

At least consumers are feeling better. Whether that means they'll start spending money is another matter.

Inch up another notch on the pain index

U.S. bankruptcies rise to record high
Thu May 15, 2003 11:00 AM ET

WASHINGTON, May 15 (Reuters) - U.S. bankruptcy filings rose to a record high in the 12-month period ending March 31, U.S. court officials said on Thursday, as the weak economy hurt personal finances.

Bankruptcies rose to 1.61 million from 1.5 million in the 12-month period ended March 2002, the Administrative Office for the U.S. Courts said in a release.

The number of bankruptcies in the first quarter rose to 412,968, up 4.5 percent from the previous quarter, the court office said.

"The number of filings continues to break records," it added.

The quarterly figure is the highest in the last nine years. A spokeswoman for the courts said she believes the number is the highest since the courts have been collecting the data.

Personal filings rose while business filings fell.

Business filings were down 5.8 percent in the 12-month period to 37,548. But nonbusiness filings, the vast majority of bankruptcies, rose 7.4 percent to 1.57 million.

Home mortgage foreclosures are also at a record high of 1.07%. Add in 1.4 million jobs lost, an unemployment rate of 6%, and a contracting manufacturing and tech sector, and more and more traditional conservative voters, e.g., white, middle-class and male, may soon become part and parcel of any, or even all, of these statistics. Bush might want to actually spend a bit more time and energy securing that part of his base.

[note: Last year, the House and Senate both approved legislation to tighten personal bankruptcy laws, but the compromise bill died in November's lame duck session. The House revived the bill in March, but faces an uphill battle in the Senate, with legislators not wanting to appear heartless during an economic downturn and facing an upcoming election.]

More on increasing autism rates

Yesterday, I posted a chart from the follow-up report on autism to the California Legislature which indicated that over 1/3 of all autism cases were in children born between 1992 and 1998. Before I shared my own ideas regarding the surge in cases, I asked for readers opinions. I also found that Ross over at the Bloviator was posting on the subject, and furthermore seeking information on vaccine schedules.

Well, at this point, in comments on my earlier post, Natasha's suggestion comes closest to my own. Here, though, to add more fuel to the discussion, are the immunization schedules for 1989 and 1994, put out by the CDC:

1989 CDC Immunization Schedule
2 months: DTP #1 & polio #1 (25ug mercury)
4 months: DTP #2 & polio #2 (25ug mercury)
6 months: DTP #3 (25ug mercury)
15 months: MMR, DTP #4 & polio #3 (25ug mercury)
18 months: HIB (25ug mercury)

1994 CDC Immunization Schedule
Birth: HepB #1 (12.5ug mercury)
2 months: HIB #1, DTP #1 & polio #1 (50ug mercury)
4 months: HepB #2, HIB #2, DTP #2 & polio #2 (72.5ug mercury)
6 months: HepB #3, HIB #3, DTP #3 & polio #3 (72.5ug mercury)
12-15 months: MMR, HIB #4 & DTP #4 (50ug mercury)

[source for mercury level: vaccinesafety.edu]

In 1989, by six months of age, children received 75ug of mercury. By 1994, the cumulative mercury load by 6 months had increased to 217.5 ug. In 1999-2000, the American Pediatric Association recommended mercury, in the form of the vaccine preservative thimerosal, be removed from all childhood vaccines. By 2001, manufacturers complied.

Forget Bush I deja vu, we're now in a Reagan time warp...

At least according to Reuter's:

Industrial Production Fell 0.5 Percent
Thu May 15, 2003 09:16 AM ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. industrial production fell for a second straight month in April, according to a Federal Reserve report released on Thursday, as American factories operated at their slowest pace since Ronald Reagan was in the White House.
The Fed said output at the nation's manufacturing plants, mines and utilities slid by 0.5 percent, the same as in March. Capacity utilization fell to 74.4 percent from 74.8 percent.

U.S. factories ran at an even slower pace, only 72.5 percent of capacity, the lowest reading since May 1983, when it was also 72.5 percent.

Even during the Bush I recession of 1990-91, capacity never fell below 78%.

New jobless claims down for second week

In the week ending May 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 417,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 430,000. The 4-week moving average was 439,750, a decrease of 7,500 from the previous week's revised average of 447,250.
[source: doleta.com

Of course, expect that number to be revised upwards next week, as all initial reports have in the past month, by as much as 7K new claims. But all in all, it's better to see the number decrease than increase. Unfortunately, with the ax falling due to state budget red ink, I expect the number to rebound by midsummer.

The DOL doesn't have the entire press release up yet, so I'll update this on continued claims later this morning.

[update: I was able to glean the additional claim information from an AP story on the record drop in the Producer Price Index:

The number of workers continuing to collect unemployment benefits shot up by 120,000 to 3.77 million for the week ending May 3, the most recent period for which that information is available. That marked the highest level since Nov. 17, 2001, and suggested that not a lot of hiring is going on.

Additional factoid: I just looked it up, and prior to the two-month surge in continued claims cause by the 9/11 attacks, the last time claims rose above 3.5 million was the first week of June, 1991. Ironically, new claims then were also down for the third straight week. While analysts at the time asserted this indicated that the sluggish US economy was turning the corner after the conclusion of the Gulf War, it turned out merely to be a reprieve; by fall, unemployment was on its way back up, and the ecomomy back in the doldrums.

A hint of a spine from Senate Dems?

A vertabra or two is all we ask. Tell us this is just the beginning:

Congress raised the debt limit by $450 billion last year, and Democrats made it clear today that they intended to use every future request for an increase to criticize the administration's economic policies. They unveiled a new "debt clock" today that measures the size of the national debt, and announced they were opening an "economic recovery room" off the Senate chamber where Democratic senators could go to denounce the White House.

Senator Frank R. Lautenberg, Democrat of New Jersey, unveiled a mock credit card with President Bush's picture on it, drawn on "The Bank of Our Children's Future," which was stamped as over its credit limit.

I like to find a Java-based version of the debt clock to run on Wampum and/or ISTE. If anyone knows of one, email or add to comments please.

Ouch

After the War, shoppers are sure to come out in droves, right? Wrong.

Retail Sales Ease Unexpectedly in April
Wed May 14, 2003 08:30 AM ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales fell unexpectedly in April with sales excluding autos posting their biggest drop since September 2001, the government said on Wednesday, raising questions about eagerness of American consumers to shop.

Some of the slip stemmed from a fall in gasoline prices, which depressed the dollar value of the amount of goods Americans purchased, and the Iraq war may have added to consumer uncertainty. The latest report from the Commerce Department showed soggy demand at clothing stores, furniture shops and other retail outlets, although strong car sales helped to offset some of that weakness.

Total retail purchases slid 0.1 percent in April in contrast to the predictions of U.S. economists in a Reuters survey who expected sales to rise by 0.4 percent. In the closely watched category of sales excluding automobiles, purchases slumped 0.9 percent, the biggest drop since a 1.2 percent fall when the Sept. 11 attacks dealt a sudden and harsh blow to retail sales.

However, stripping out gasoline, total retail sales rose by 0.4 percent.

While that may sound like good news, March's retail sales were up 2.3%, leading some economists, including Alan Greenspan to think perhaps the worst was over. Apparently not.

I did mention that this happened just after Gulf War I as well. Those who do not learn from history are doomed to what again? Repeat it? And I don't suspect things may get much better in the immediate future. The latest ABC News/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index (via Polling Report) indicates consumer sentiment dropped sharply in the past four weeks, down 9 points since mid-April.

Time for Bush to start pushing his $726,000,000,000 tax cut even harder. Got to get the money into the hands of the super-rich so they can start buying Fords and Chevys.

More on the new California Autism report

The entire report, entitled Autistic Spectrum Disorders: Changes In The California Caseload An Update: 1999 Through 2002 is now available online in .pdf format. There's a lot in the report to discuss, which I probably will do over the next few days.

One visual in particular, however, struck me to the extent that I felt compelled to share it as soon as possible.

According to this graph, over a third (37%) of currently diagnosed cases of autism have been in children born between 1992 and 1998. That is more than in the preceding three birth cohorts from 1978 to 1992 combined, although it appears as though whatever trend led to the skyrocketing of autism during the 1990s may have begun sometime during the preceding birth cohort years between 1987 and 1992. Since autism is generally not diagnosed until between ages two to four, the trend may also have spilled over into in the youngest group, born after 1998.

When I look at this chart, it's obvious that some trigger or triggers entered the picture sometime after the late 1980's. This is not a relic of diagnostic changes or shuffling kids from column A to column B; that was the job of the first UC-Davis study to sort out.

Before I share my own thoughts, I'll take my reader's hypotheses first.

Texas Republicans play dirty with the Bees

What's the old saying? When you can't beat 'em....intimidate their families?

The state officers who are in charge of rounding up the runaway lawmakers, meanwhile, were accused Tuesday by some Democrats and their relatives of heavy-handed tactics .

"Once our wives tell them they don't know where we are, that should be the end of it and once they know where we are that should be the end of it," said Craig Eiland of Galveston, one of 51 Democrats holed up in an Ardmore, Okla., motel.

Eiland accused state House Speaker Tom Craddick of using Texas Department of Public Safety officers to intimidate their families and staffs, even after the legislator's location in Oklahoma was disclosed on Monday. Such harassment included:

* A Texas Ranger, instructed by the Craddick, appeared late Monday night at the University of Texas Medical Branch-Galveston NICU, where Eiland's premature twins are patients. The same Ranger even later that night went to Eiland's home to question his wife, still recovering from the twin's birth.

* A state trooper told a senior staffer of Elliott Naishtat (D-Austin) that withholding information regarding the missing legislator was a felony offense, even though State House rules governing quorums carry no civil or criminal sanctions.

* The wife of Democrat Chuck Hopson (D-Jacksonville) was tailed by Rangers from Austin to Jacksonville on Monday.

* Denise Pickett, the wife of Joe Pickett (D-El Paso) returned home Monday night after receiving a phone call from her teenage daughter, saying that police were at the house. When she arrived home, she found the officers emerging from the from the house, having questioned her minor child without her presence or consent.

The Texas DPS spokeswoman Teela Mange said "she could not explain why family members were questioned if authorities knew where the legislators were."

Having had a child in a NICU after birth, I cannot imagine any explanation other than sheer intimidation that a uniformed officer would interrogate hospital staff engaged in carrying for sick infants. Such behavior is just beyond the pale and if Craddick ordered it, knowing full well the location of the twins parent, he should be held accountable.

Republicans in Texas may not like the tactics the Democrats are employing, and they have all he reasons in the book to vent their frustrations civilly - they are "civil" servants after all, and represent all of their constituents, regardless of political affiliation. But some Republican actions, such as Craddick's attempts at intimidation and the House Republican's printing of playing cards similar to those used to catch wanted Iraqi officials, only rubber stamps more thuggery from non-legislators. Already, wanted "dead-or-alive" posters are popping up on right-wing websites. How long before someone decides to take those signs seriously?

The rose tinting in those glasses is beginning to fade

Ever so slightly.

First, there's the realization you've been duped. As long as there's no real harm done, the critique remains on simmer. But there are now cracks in the foundation; how long before they become deep fissures?

Poll finds about half of Americans believe Bush overestimated Iraqi weapons
Tuesday, May 13, 2003
Associated Press

About half the country believes the Bush administration overestimated the number of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, according to a poll released Tuesday, but most people feel the war was worth it anyway.

The CBS News-New York Times poll found 64 percent of Americans are aware that no weapons of mass destruction have yet been found in Iraq.

Some 49 percent said the administration overestimated the amount of mass destruction weapons in Iraq, while 29 percent said its estimates were accurate and 12 percent said they were low.

Two-thirds of those who believe the weapons count was overestimated also believe it was a deliberate exaggeration to build support for the war.

Still, 56 percent said the war will have been worth it if weapons of mass destruction are never found, while 38 percent said it would not have been worth it.

Similarly, 56 percent said the war would have been worth it even if Saddam Hussein is never captured or killed, while 37 percent say it would not have been worth it.

Asked who should take the lead in setting up a new Iraqi government, 45 percent preferred the United Nations; 34 percent say the United States should manage things entirely on its own for now; and 13 percent want the United States to lead but also want a U.N. role.

Although AP seems to want to spin this next result for Bush, it's actually not much better than where he was before he started his tax-relief-for-rich-friends tour.

A question about the new round of tax cuts suggested good news for the Bush administration: 41 percent of respondents think the cuts would help rather than hurt the economy; 19 percent think they would be bad for the economy; and 33 percent think they would have no effect.

Hmmm...so 52% of Americans think spending $726,000,000,000 will do nothing for the flailing economy? Sounds like great news for Bush.

New autism report out from California

And it's not at all good. Not unexpected, at least for those of us who have suspected that autism is in fact reaching "epidemic" proportions, but bad news nonetheless.

Report: Calif. autism rate has doubled in four years
Beth Fouhy
Associated Press
May 13, 2003

SAN FRANCISCO - The number of children with autism in California has nearly doubled in the last four years and continues to grow as researchers struggle to identify the cause of the incurable developmental disorder, a new report released Tuesday found.

The report by the California Department of Developmental Services found that 20,377 California children were receiving DDS services for autism as of December 2002 - a 97 percent increase since 1998. The disorder is now more prevalent in California than childhood cancer, diabetes and Down syndrome. [my emphasis, explained below.]

Autism - a lifelong neurological condition found mostly among males - severely impairs a person's ability to speak, communicate and interact with others. The report addresses only those with "classic" autism, the disorder's most severe form characterized by severely limited speech, impaired social interaction, and repetitive behaviors such as finger tapping. Children under three years of age, and those with lesser forms of the disorder such as Asperger's syndrome, were not included.

The report is the continuation of a study published by DDS in 1999, which showed a 237 percent spike in autism cases from 1987 to 1998.

Ron Huff, a psychologist who conducted both studies for DDS, said the latest numbers reflect an actual increase in autism in the state, not just improved diagnosis of existing cases.

"After we did the first report, we anticipated the numbers would go down," Huff said. "Instead, they were actually increasing. It's not just a matter of better diagnosis." [more of my own emphasis]

Indeed, despite a broader awareness of autism and stepped up research in recent years, the DDS report said scientists have not yet pinpointed a cause for the disorder. A once-dominant theory, now discounted, that placed blame on cold and distant mothers for causing autism has given way to a more thorough investigation of the potential genetic and environmental factors that may increase a child's vulnerability to the condition.

"We know that it's a very complicated genetic disorder, but it's also probably true that genes are not the entire answer," said Dr. David Amaral, research director for the MIND Institute at University of California, Davis, which studies autism. "It's most likely a combination of genetic susceptibility and an environmental disorder."

DDS researchers are looking at range of environmental toxins that could make children more vulnerable, including PCBs, pesticides, and heavy metals such as mercury and lead. They are also exploring the debated theory that childhood vaccines may be at the root of the problem.

The earlier MIND Institute study did find that a portion (<20%) of the children in California had been improperly misdiagnosed as mentally retarded, or not diagnosed at having multiple handicaps including autism. Thus the researchers thought that in this study, the increase would be significantly less, or none at all. What they found was a stunning near 97% increase in four years. In the past two years, Maine had a similar upsurge; the new December 2002 numbers were recently released, and in just two years, Maine experienced a 42% increase in cases with a single diagnosis of autism (versus autism as one of multiple disabilities.) The argument that autism was improperly classified as mental retardation continues to show its flaws. In the past two years, the number of children with MR diagnoses has decreased only 4%, a number which may in fact have a greater correlation to tightening of Maine's lead paint laws in the past 20 years.

Recently, an autism advocacy critic asserted that autism somehow gets lots of attention because it effects white, middle- and upper-class children. I pointed out that it effects poor, non-white children around the world in equal numbers, only distinguishing between males and females. But the argument just doesn't ring true when the facts are laid out. If funding for autism research is compared with that of two other major "epidemics", HIV/AIDS and diabetes, which portionally affect more non-whites than whites, it barely registers on the map. In fact, below is a graph of the funding levels by NIH for the three diseases:

[source: House Committee on Reform]
[note: on my computer the labels are fuzzy - the first columns represent diabetes funding, the second HIV/AIDS, and the third, autism]

Since identifying HIV/AIDS as an epidemic through the end of 1998, 5,237 American children under age 13 were reported as living with the disease. Pediatric AIDS cases decreased by two-thirds from 1992 to 1997 (947 to 310 cases). Juvenile diabetes affects one child in 7,000 in the US, versus the most recent CDC estimate of 1:250 rate for autism. Yet despite affecting hundreds of thousands of children in this country, autism is largely ignored by Congressional check writers. If this is the best we can expect from white middle class parents, I think they're doing a pitiful job. [sarcasm off]

The truth is, autism isn't "sexy", at least to those footing the research bills; there is no insatiable market for insulin or AZT. A few doctors prescribe anti-depressants or sleep aids, that's about it. Big Pharma has focused most of its autism research money on saving its own hide; trying to disprove a link between vaccines and autistic disorders is the black hole for drug company cash.

Even with this phenomenal increase in cases of autism, POAs shouldn't expect much relief from the Federal government. The 20 billion Congress might give the states would barely pay for standard services for California's autistic population for 2 years (20K kids at about 50K/year each.) Oh, that's if there's no further increase. And while most of the non-autistic advocating population thinks, hey, it doesn't affect me, think again. Disabled kids get first dibs on school funds; they have a Constitutionally guaranteed right to a "free and appropriate public education". School districts will have to cut everything but math and English before they stop providing even the most expensive services to special needs kids. Parents of non-disabled kids used to complain that their kids didn't get soccer uniforms because of the cost of special education. Ha! With the radical Republicans in charge, that's just the tip of the budget-cutting iceberg, I'm sorry to say.

The other Powell sits poised to strike

And his target is not Iraq, but your access to information.

F.C.C. Prepares to Loosen Rules on Media Ownership
By STEPHEN LABATON

WASHINGTON, May 12 — The government proposed the most significant overhaul of its media ownership rules in a generation today, including a change that would allow television networks to own enough local stations to reach 90 percent of the nation's viewers.

That change — a result of increasing the cap on ownership and simultaneously preserving a 1980's formula that discounts the reach of UHF stations — is part of the package of proposals that officials said appeared to have the support of the Republican majority of the Federal Communications Commission.

The commission staff sent the detailed plan early this evening to the five commissioners ahead of a final vote in three weeks. The commission has not formally made the plan public, though major portions were disclosed today and in previous days by officials and industry experts.

The proposed changes represent the most important rewriting of the ownership rules in decades, permitting the largest media conglomerates to expand into new markets and own more properties in a single city. Analysts expect companies, including Viacom and the News Corporation, to seek to expand their media holdings substantially.

Others, like the Tribune Company and the Gannett Company, might seek to acquire broadcasters or newspapers in cities where they already have a presence. Media brokers and Wall Street bankers have begun advising clients on what is expected to be a scramble of mergers that would reshape the media landscape in many communities across the country.

In a recent interview and in other comments, the agency's chairman, Michael K. Powell, said that revisions in the media ownership rules would be more modest than critics had maintained and that changes in technology and viewing habits, combined with court decisions and a Congressional directive, necessitated that the current regulations be reconsidered.

But the agency's two Democrats have expressed concerns about many aspects of the proposal. In interviews today before receiving the detailed plan, the two commissioners, Michael J. Copps and Jonathan S. Adelstein, said that they were troubled by reports that the commission's staff, after extensive consultations with Mr. Powell, would recommend raising the ownership cap while retaining the formula that discounts the audience size of UHF stations.

"I'm afraid we may be moving in a more dramatic fashion that could permanently alter the media for generations to come," Mr. Adelstein said.

Mr. Copps said that the changes, including the sharp increase in the television ownership cap, "would be a green light to considerable and significant consolidation in the future."

"It's hard to imagine how the proposals foster the goals of the rules, which are diversity of voices, localism and competition," he said.

Lisa English, of Ruminate This, has been a pitbull on this issue. And now, she got the Lefty Blogosphere on the case.

I can't even imagine what media consolidation would do to the Maine market, already on its proverbial deathbed. Our local paper is owned by the parent company of the Seattle Times, we have only 3 local broadcast stations for the state, plus much of north and eastern New Hampshire.

So head on over to Ruminate This and get your activism on.

Fax the Bees!

Okay, so they're actually now being called the Killer "Ds", but I'm still wedded to the old '79 name. But if you'd like to show your support for the Bees or the Ds, here's the contact info for the hotel where at least 50 of the swarm have congregated:

The Ardmore Holiday Inn's telephone number is (580) 223-7130. They receive faxes on the same line as voice.

Send a fax expressing your support to:

THE TEXAS DEMOCRATS
Ardmore Holiday Inn
Ardmore, OK

And if you're within 200 miles of Ardmore, what are you doing reading this? You should be in your car, on your way to rally in person for those brave Dems.

The Killer Bees migrate north

Missing Lawmakers Turn Up In Oklahoma
Lawmakers Say They Plan To Resume Work Sessions Tuesday
Updated: 8:30 a.m. EDT May 13, 2003

ARDMORE, Okla. -- They wore jeans and baseball caps, but Texas House Democrats say their day in Oklahoma wasn't fun and games as they skipped the state legislative session and brought the House to a standstill.

About 59 Democrat lawmakers spent Monday in a Holiday Inn conference room in Ardmore, along Interstate 35 about 30 miles north of Gainesville, Texas. They said they discussed school financing, homeowners insurance and other issues and planned to resume the work sessions and hold a news conference Tuesday explaining Monday's actions.

The rebel lawmakers, discovered Monday night, said they didn't show up for work because they're angry with the Republican leadership in the Texas House.

The boycott occurred just before debate in the House on a congressional redistricting plan was scheduled to begin.

GOP leader Tom Craddick sent state troopers to ask them to return, but the Democrats refused.

The troopers have no legal authority to arrest the lawmakers, but Craddick said he made a plane available to Democrats who chose to go back so that the House can continue state business.

Yesterday, in comments, Steve Bates explained the renegade lawmakers' position in greater detail than the news accounts:

Democrats in the Texas Legislature are attempting to stop the second gerrymander in as many years... this one of congressional districts, including mine... by Republicans.

The previous gerrymander map, the State Legislature map, was redrawn by John Cornyn, then state attorney general, now U.S. Senator. The attempted redraw of the congressional map is being perpetrated by... you should have guessed it... Tom DeLay, using the results of the first gerrymander as expressed in the 2002 election. If it succeeds, the GOP will gain 5 to 7 seats in the U.S. House... with no voters' minds being changed.

Kos, over at the Daily Kos, is also following this story. He provide more on attempts by Texas governor Rick Perry to have the feds get involved so they can arrest the legislators in Oklahoma.

It's so heartening to see Democrats act like Democrats, and in Texas no less. Go Bees, Go!

[Update: Kevin Drum has a map of one proposed district - all 300 miles of it)

Return of the Killer Bees

Sounds like a bad B-movie...(yes, there's a pun there.)

However, Congressional Democrats should head to Texas this week to get a lesson in playing hardball. Thing is, there may not be many Texas Democrats to teach them.

But that is exactly the point.

Report: House Democrats plan to break quorum
Associated Press
Monday, May 12, 2003

SAN ANTONIO — A group of Texas state representatives reportedly plans to leave the state with the intent of breaking a legislative quorum.

One of the organizers told the San Antonio Express-News in Monday's editions that the action was planned this week as retaliation against the state's Republican leadership.

The plan by Democratic House members, if successful, would derail and likely kill major pending bills that have been termed a priority by the Republican-controlled Legislature.

"We're leaving, and we'll stay gone till Thursday," one member from South Texas, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told the newspaper.

Sources said the group's members were leaving Sunday night and planned to issue a prepared statement Monday morning to explain its actions.

Several of the legislators who planned to be absent said they were expecting the worst.

"I guess we will be called obstructionists, or maybe worse. But we are making a statement," said the South Texas legislator. "If this is going to be the only way to stop bad legislation from being rammed down our throats, then so be it."

Legislative leaders have three weeks left in the regular session and major pieces of legislation still pending. The breaking of a quorum hasn't been used in more than 20 years as a parliamentary maneuver, officials said.

Such a move would require at least 51 members to be absent from Monday's session, scheduled to convene at 9 a.m., for House activity to be brought to a halt. The Texas House cannot convene without at least two-thirds of the membership, or 100 members, present on the House floor under legislative rules.

Republicans, in major legislative battles thus far, have used their majority among state representatives to aggressively push major legislation, such as the reorganization of state government, House Bill 2, and the school finance bill, House Bill 5. Those and other Republican-promoted measures must pass out of the House and be sent to the Senate by Thursday or risk dying.

Twenty-four years ago this month, a group of 12 Texas state senators defied then-Lt. Gov. Bill Hobby by refusing to show up at the Capitol. The "Killer Bees," as the 12 came to be known, hid out in a West Austin garage apartment while Department of Public Safety troopers, Texas Rangers and legislative sergeants-at-arms unsuccessfully combed the state for them.

The latest group of quorum-busters planned to leave the state to avoid having state police detain them and forcibly return them to the House floor, if necessary.

"DPS or the Rangers can't exactly come get us if we are outside of Texas," said another legislator.

One hopes that the legislators who are choosing this tactic are in safe Democratic districts, and have constituents who will appreciate having these men and women risk their political futures to stop harmful legislation.

If killer bees can invade Bush Country, maybe they'll begin migrating north.

And the Red states get bluer over increasing unemployment

Over the weekend on the Daily Kos, RonK, filling in for Kos, took a look at the strengths and weaknesses of the 2004 Senate races, and other related state politics concerns for Democrats. Within comments, I pointed to the graph I drew last month, looking at how specific state unemployment levels could conceivably impact a close Presidential election.

I received an update via email from the BLS last week, but didn't have time to run new numbers. My sense, though, was that unemployment numbers had increased in nearly all the battleground states.

I was correct. Only in Pennsylvania and West Virginia did the local unemployment rate decrease. Last month, only two states had seen an increase of 2.0% or more; this month, the number increased to seven.

Ron mentioned he'd like to see the numbers for the "hard" Red states. Always willing to crunch more unemployment numbers, here they are:

Looks like Bush has some explaining to do back in his home state.

[x-posted at ISTES]

Light blogging ahead (at least this weekend)...

Next week is Kikas, the Planting Moon. The weather here in Maine has been rather cold and wet so far this spring, so I haven't been able to do much preparation. Since today was absolutely gorgeous, I scampered off to my favorite equipment rental (no joke, they know my voice when I phone) to pick up a Pony for the weekend. Mother's Day, Schmother's Day - I've got a quarter acre to till before the full moon on Thursday.

This Kikas is even more special as it is the first lunar eclipse visible in Maine in three years. That it falls on the planting moon is particularly auspicious - I expect you'll all be bugging me to Fed-Ex you wskimenal (sweet corn) and wasawal (squash) come August.

I should be back Monday, but may blog in the wee hours if insomnia strikes. I suspect, though, I'll be sleeping like a rock after all that tilling.

If you're reading this Saturday evening or later, you've already missed the Dartmouth spring powwow. However, for those in the Bay Area, the Stanford Powwow continues through tomorrow.

Mastercard quote of the day

Here are some facts on judicial nominations.
The number of Bush circuit court nominees the Senate has confirmed: 22.
The number of Bush nominees confirmed to the district courts: 101.
The number of Bush judicial nominees currently being filibustered: 2.
The claim that Democrats are being obstructionist: priceless. And laughable.

-- E.J. Dionne Jr [via The Note]

The Ghost

A work of fiction?

Chapter I.

I've been haunted by a ghost named David recently. He first appeared a few days back, while I was driving alone to the grocery store. Next, he showed up while I was showering. Then, anytime I had a few minutes of down time in my hectic daily schedule, he was there. Now, he's not even that considerate; he's edging in on my activities, while I make lunches, change diapers or try to solve the puzzles of US unemployment.

David wasn't always a ghost. He was once a well known scholar with a long and promising career in academic archaeology. His work on the origins of agriculture is hailed as essential reading for all Americanists. In fact, we first met when I offered a rather blistering critique of his theoretical framework on a newsgroup frequented mostly by archaeology grad students and interested amateurs. Never did I expect the pre-eminent Dr. Rindos to answer my not-so-flattering assessment, and with such humor and graciousness. We immediately became frequent correspondents, as David had previously emigrated to Australia to take a teaching position at the University of Western Australia. We also became good friends, despite always remaining on opposite ends of the theoretical spectrum, archaeologically-speaking.

David and I were also on other electronic anthropology lists together. It was on one such list that David was brutally defamed by an Australian graduate student named Gil Hardwick. Hardwick was seething over David's bringing to light accusations of sexual misconduct with, and abuse of, graduate students by his department head. In a post to the internet anthropology list, Hardwick accused David of engaging in pedophilia, racist behavior and drunkenness. He also claimed David had no genuine academic ability in his field, in fact, was a pitiful scholar who had made his name by berating and bullying his way to the top.

David sued Hardwick, and in a landmark decision regarding accountability for ad hominem speech on the internet, was awarded $40,000 in damages for libel and defamation by Hardwick. In the meantime, David was also battling UWA, which had denied him tenure.

Between the two conflicts, the personal and professional toll on David was staggering. Hardwick played the homophobia card with his accusations of pedophilia: David was openly gay, and in conservative enclaves of Western Australia, pedophilia and homosexuality were viewed as synonymous. He was constantly harassed and threatened, and the stress was immeasurable. In December, 1996, I received an email from a mutual friend that David had suffered a fatal heart attack: He was 49.

I, like hundreds of David's friends and colleagues, could not imagine standing by while he was defamed by Hardwick. We rallied around him, pushed his case to the media and Australian government, and isolated Hardwick as a xenophobe and anti-gay bigot.

David's current haunting, I know, is an effort to remind me of that person I once was. For days, I've been shooing him away, like a pesky fly. It's not my problem, I tell the annoying apparition. Someone else will handle it. Even my friends advise me not to get involved. If I just turn my face while I walk by the alley, I won't see the homeless man being mugged.

Besides, the left side of the blogosphere recently suffered a significant blow with Sean Paul Kelley's admission of plagiarism. Although Kelley apologized and came to an amicable resolution with the victim of his misdeeds, the denunciations quickly turned from Kelly's actions to the silence within much of the blogging Left in regards to his behavior. While the criticism was on many levels valid, the whole debate was seeped in politics: The Left had denounced the great leader Bush while supporting an admitted plagiarist; ergo, the Left had no credibility. The slap still stings.

Why stir up the hive again?

Is it fear which paralyzes me? People will be angry with me. They'll boycott my blog. They'll harangue me in other blog's comments. And besides, I actually dislike confrontation. If I wait long enough, someone with more backbone than I will address the situation.

And truth be told, Ghost, I already took some action. I removed accusations I knew to be libelous and defamatory from my comments. I've suggested the victim seek legal counsel. I've now immunized myself from claims of hypocrisy from the Right. What do I gain from doing anything more?

Chapter II.

Still in progress. It's hard to reach the keyboard without a spine.

Flashback Friday for the second week of May, 1991

NEW FOCUS ON BUSH:
IMAGE OF INVINCIBILITY IN '92 BEGINS TO FADE
Curtis Wilkie, Boston Globe
May 9, 1991

President Bush's aura of invincibility in 1992 has begun to dissolve.

The most recent and talked-about political vulnerability came with news that Bush had been hospitalized with an irregular heartbeat -- and the resulting visions of a President Quayle.

But although Democrats have done nothing to mount a serious challenge to the incumbent, there have been other recent developments that -- taken together -- gnaw at Bush's political stature. This in contrast to two months ago...

HILL DEMOCRATS UNVEIL MIDDLE-CLASS TAX CUT PLAN
$20 BILLION IN BREAKS FOR FAMILIES WITH CHILDREN WOULD BE OFFSET WITH HIGHER LEVIES ON WEALTHY
Paul Taylor, Washington Post
May 7, 1991

Four veteran Democratic members of Congress yesterday proposed cutting $20 billion in taxes for middle-class families and paying for it with a tax hike of the same size on the richest 6 million taxpayers

"This proposal would provide an enormous amount of tax relief to working families with children," said Sen. Albert Gore Jr. (D-Tenn.), who, with Rep. Thomas J. Downey (D-N.Y.), is lead sponsor of a bill that many Democrats believe is a dark horse for passage in this year's ...

AT PRINCETON, BUSH CHIDES CONGRESS
Ann Devroy, Washington Post
May 11, 1991

President Bush, in his first out-of-town trip since his bout with an irregular heartbeat last weekend, mildly chastised Congress today for trying to dilute the power of the presidency.

In an address to a Princeton University audience, Bush outlined what he called unnecessary requests from Congress that waste the time of the White House and "wildly proliferating" requests from congressional oversight committees. He also complained of "aggressive action against specific...

FIGURES SHOW SUNUNUS ON TIGHT BUDGET
MILITARY JETS MAY HAVE MADE SOME TRIPS AFFORDABLE FOR BUSH AIDE
Charles R. Babcock and Ann Devroy, Washington Post
May 11, 1991

As the top aide to the president, White House Chief of Staff John H. Sununu has enjoyed many of the trappings of wealth and power: aides hover at his side, a chauffeured car delivers him to work, government jets have moved him across the nation on demand.

But an examination of Sununu's personal finances indicates that Sununu, like many government workers in Washington, lives from paycheck to paycheck. His family income, after fixed expenses, would have made it difficult for the...

SECOND-BEST CONSERVATION
Washington Post
May 7, 1991

ONE WAY to make automobiles more efficient is by regulation -- enacting a law that tells manufacturers to meet a higher gas mileage standard. The other way is to rely on the market by raising the price of fuel and letting people decide for themselves how to to save it. The second method is much more efficient, but it means increasing the fuel tax. Of the two approaches, the Bush administration is much more vehemently hostile to the tax than to regulation. That is why the United States is once...

INDEX AREA ECONOMY CONTINUED SLIDE IN FEB.
GAUGE HINTS RECESSION MAY BE NEARING END
Anne Swardson, Washington Post
May 8, 1991

The Washington area economy continued to deteriorate in February but the end of the recession may be drawing closer, according to new figures issued yesterday.

A forecasting gauge created by the Greater Washington Research Center turned upward in February for the third straight month, but a second index designed to reveal the current condition of the economy fell again, as it has done steadily for the last year....

EXECUTIVES PESSIMISTIC ON ECONOMY
Mark Potts, Washington Post
May 11, 1991

Most experts say the worst of the recession may be over and the economy could turn up this summer. General Electric Co. Chairman John F. Welch Jr. isn't so sure.

"I see no pickup in the economy," he said in an interview here at the meeting of the Business Council, the group of blue-chip companies' chief executives that he chairs. "Anything relating to consumers is still in difficulty, whether it be appliances, or other things. There's no sign of uptick in the economy...

N.Y. FISCAL WOES ARE WORSE IN THIS CRISIS
SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC PROBLEMS INTENSIFIED
Robert J. McCartney, Washington Post
May 10, 1991

As this city slides into its second major budget crisis in 15 years, it must wrestle with underlying economic and social problems that are significantly more severe than those that nearly tumbled it into bankruptcy in the mid-1970s, according to a broad array of experts on New York's finances

Mayor David N. Dinkins, who warned in a televised speech to the city Wednesday night that services may be cut drastically because of the crunch, is struggling with soaring costs for urban...

FED NOMINEE CAUTIOUS ON INTEREST RATE CUTS
John M. Berry Washington Post
May 8, 1991

Lawrence B. Lindsey, the White House economist nominated by President Bush to fill a vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board, yesterday signaled senators upset with current Fed policy that he would take a more cautious view than they might like on cutting interest rates to fight the recession...

ACROSS U.S., HINTS OF END TO RECESSION
NEW ENGLAND SEES SIGNS OF RECOVERY AN ECONOMIC RECOVERY'S
John M. Berry, Washington Post
May 8, 1991

On open rolling fields of this Hartford suburb, where acres of white muslin once shaded growing tobacco leaves destined to wrap cigars, J.M.J. Construction Co. is planting the seeds of an economic recovery for the United States.

Like most seeds, these don't look particularly impressive. They are simply several new $185,000, three-bedroom homes in varying stages of construction that already have buyers, most of whom were able to buy because they had sold their present homes. But those...

CLEARING THE AIR
Boston Globe
May 9, 1991

When President Bush signed the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 in November, he called the new law the "most significant air-pollution legislation in our nation's history," an assertion that is no exaggeration -- assuming full implementation and enforcement of this complex, long-range blueprint to improve air quality.

However, now, less than six months later, there are disturbing indications that the administration may be trying to sabotage the law...

US GULF ROLE IS AGREED ON, CHENEY SAYS SECRETARY REPORTS ACCORD ON MORE FORCES
Associated Press
May 10, 1991

SHANNON, Ireland -- Defense Secretary Richard Cheney said yesterday that he had won "broad agreement" from Persian Gulf governments on steps to strengthen their defenses and to permanently expand the US military presence in the region in the aftermath of the war with Iraq.

Cheney said the measures, some of them secret, are designed to make the oil- producing gulf states less vulnerable to regional military threats and to make it easier for US air, sea and ground forces to aid them...

[Gee, I didn't know Andy Card was also a Bush I holdover...]

CARD REGRETS HIS REMARK ON WESTERN PART OF STATE
John Aloysius Farrell, Boston Globe
May 9, 1991

WASHINGTON -- Andrew Card, the White House aide whose imprudent description of western Massachusetts as "hard to get to" has upset some residents of the left-hand side of the state, offered an apology yesterday.

An abashed Card said he is "eating crow," deserves to be disciplined "in the political woodshed" and never meant to suggest that the countryfolk west of Springfield were any less sophisticated than their counterparts in the commonwealth who live closer...

[If only this were true....]

SENATE PANEL VOTES NOT TO BUST BUDGET
Helen Dewar, Washington Post
May 8, 1991

The Senate Budget Committee agreed without dissent yesterday to stick with the fiscal discipline that Congress imposed on itself last year, but its leaders indicated that spending limits may be relaxed to permit limited anti-recession initiatives, such as extension of unemployment benefits.

Despite the nation's continuing recession, the committee voted 21 to 0 against using an escape hatch in the budget rules that would let Congress suspend fiscal constraints blocking major new spending...

Mainely here or there

The Amistad comes to Portland!

Well, sort of. Actually, it's a replica of the (in)famous 1830's slave vessel appropriated by the African captives it was transporting for sale into slavery. It docked in Portland harbor on Tuesday, and will be available for boarding and tours through next week.

Speaking of visiting Portland...Howard Dean did this week. Some people went. But the press forgot to report it until after the fact. Oops.

Two better known Maine politicos faired somewhat better this week. Senator's Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins both essentially got what they asked for in the Senate's version (cough, cough) of Bush's tax plan. Snowe wanted a dividend cut mostly for low-to-moderate-income stockholders, and Collins wanted federal aid to the states. Of course, neither will make it through the joint session with the rabid Republican supply-siders from the House, but they gave it their best. Now let's see if they vote their conscience when the original $726,000,000,000 tax cut comes back to for a vote by the Senate.

In local political news, Governor John Baldacci (with whom I had dinner the other evening - okay, a hundred other Portland Dems were there too), announced his plan to provide universal coverage for all Mainards. I haven't read the specifics, but I'd say, if we didn't have a wonderful single payer plan working its way through the legislature, its a great start. But, you know, we do have that plan. (Ah, piqued your interest, eh? Well, read about it all here.)

And not to leave Maine without a little culture, go listen to (and buy!) my friend and neighbor Sara Cox's EP, Firewater.

More fun with unemployment numbers

In the past months that I've been playing with unemployment numbers, both the overall rate and unemployment compensation claims, a few things have nagged at me; one was the number of people who were unemployed, yet did not qualify for unemployment insurance. In my state, there are a number of reasons, besides the obvious one of being fired for cause: If an individual has not worked enough quarters, or made enough money during the designated base period. If one is self-employed, or is an officer in an incorporated business, no matter what size, you're out of luck. Temporary workers may also be excluded from collecting benefits.

I wondered just what percentage of workers were not covered by unemployment benefits, and had that changed over time under Bush's recession? So I cracked open the old Excel worksheet and started digging through the DOL. Below is the percent change in the US labor force (currently working full-or part time, or desiring work):

While it's obvious that the number of American workers no longer covered by unemployment compensation has decreased rather substantially under Bush, it's also telling to look at those numbers in reverse, and contrasted with the unemployment rate.

With its release of weekly unemployment claims, the DOL also provides the seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate for the week. It's quite disconcerting that although the unemployment rate has increased 2.0% since Bush took office, the IUR currently stands at 2.8%, up 0.7 from 2.1%. In comparison, at the same point in the first Bush Administration, the national unemployment rate was up 1.3%, to 6.7%. Yet the IUR was up 1.2%, to a total of 3.3%.

It's pretty clear that under George W. Bush, unemployed workers are faring worse than even under his father's crummy economy. And, of course, the social safety net was all but pulled with welfare reform and the Republican's Contract on America. (Oh, and don't look now, but rumors abound that CoA author Ed Gillespie will be taking over the RNC.)

So what is the real story here?

New Claims for Jobless Benefits Decline

Unemployment Claims Remain High

Number of new jobless claims dips

New claims for jobless benefits still point to sluggish labor market

I guess it depends upon who is writing your headlines. Actually, all the above refer to the same AP article by by Jeannine Aversa:

WASHINGTON (AP)--Fewer workers sought unemployment benefits last week, but the level of new claims remained high, another sign that cautious companies are keeping their work forces lean amid a muddled postwar economic climate.

The Labor Department reported Thursday that new applications for jobless benefits dropped by a seasonally adjusted 28,000 to 425,000 for the work week ending May 3. Even with that decline, claims have been running above the 400,000 mark--a level associated with a stagnant job market--for 12 straight weeks.

The more stable, four-week moving average of new claims, which smoothes out week to week fluctuations, rose by 3,250 last week to 446,000. That represented the highest level in more than a year.

Also of concern are the number of continuing claims, up by 6,000 to 3.67 million previous week ending 4/26. The initial claims are at their highest since the weeks following the September 11th terror attacks. The continuing claims have not been this high since just before the 1992 election, when Bush Sr. was defeated, in part due to anger over the poor job market.

An interesting observation regarding the calculation of the jobless claims report: Each week, numbers for the previous week are reported. In addition, the previously numbers, released a week earlier are revised. In the past for weeks, those numbers have been altered as such, for the date originally released:

4/12 - +7K
4/19 - +5K
4/26 - +6K
5/3 - +5K

This averages to a 4 week revision of + 5.8K. When I compared that with the revisions from the first week in January until the first week in April, when Americans were focused more on the war in Iraq than the economy, the average revision was only + 3.6K. So I'm left to wonder, with all the focus now on the economy, and the job market in particular, how is it that the Bush Administration is having a problem suddenly calculating those new claims?

Gee, maybe it's due to all those cutbacks in state employee payrolls! Not enough state worker bees to calculate and report the data to the feds. Somehow I imagine that's not the real answer. But if states don't get relief soon, it may in fact become an issue.

[Update] Now that the entire report is up over at the Department of Labor's Unemployment Claims website, I found the footnotes interesting. Every week it documents increases and decreases over 1000 new claims. Last week the losses were such:

LA +1,049 No comment.
GA +1,056 Layoffs in the trade and textile industries.
DE +1,149 No comment.
IN +2,220 Layoffs in the manufacturing industry.
NY +4,860 Increase is seasonal, school closings related.
MA +5,616 Seasonal layoffs due to school closings, as well as layoffs in the transportation, electrical equipment, and manufacturing industries.
NJ +6,563 Seasonal layoffs due to school closings, as well as layoffs in the transportation, warehousing, service, and public administration industries.

The 3 weeks prior, which also experienced new claims over the 420K benchmark were thus:

Week ending 4/26
RI +1,099 Layoffs in the service and manufacturing industries.
AL +1,129 Layoffs in the rubber/plastics and textile industries.
GA +2,065 Layoffs in the textile, furniture, transportation equipment, and manufacturing industries.
OH +3,667 Layoffs in the transportation equipment industry.
NC +7,049 Layoffs in the construction, trade, and tobacco industries.

Week ending 4/`9
VA +1,017 Increase due to the start of a new quarter of wage credits for benefit purposes, as well as layoffs in the primary metals industry.
OH +1,127 No comment.
AZ +1,332 No comment.
TX +1,339 Layoffs in the public administration, service, and manufacturing industries.
WA +1,472 No comment.
DE +1,671 No comment.
KY +1,775 Layoffs in the public administration and manufacturing industries.
MO +1,792 Layoffs in the construction, trade, and service industries.
MD +1,871 No comment.
LA +2,379 Increase due to the start of a new quarter of wage credits for benefit purposes, as well as layoffs in the automobile industry.
IN +2,448 Layoffs in the automobile and manufacturing industries.
PA +6,052 Layoffs in the construction, trade, service, food, and transportation equipment industries.
CA +8,927 Layoffs in the trade and service industries.
MI +11,752 Layoffs in the automobile and furniture industries.

Week ending 4/12
AZ +1,091 No comment.
NJ +1,148 Layoffs in the transportation, service, finance, insurance, and manufacturing industries.
AR +1,459 No comment.
NY +1,672 No comment.
PA +1,693 Layoffs in the construction, trade, service, and textile industries.
OH +1,703 No comment.
FL +1,846 Layoffs in the construction, trade, service, and manufacturing industries, and agriculture.
TX +1,906 Layoffs in the information, service, and manufacturing industries.
AL +2,211 Layoffs in the electrical equipment and manufacturing industries.
MA +2,544 Layoffs in the trade, transportation, and manufacturing industries.
IL +5,779 Layoffs in the construction, trade, service, and manufacturing industries.

That's a lot of automotive/manufacturing jobs lost.

A rebellion of Mainiacs brewing?

I thought Bush was trying to gain the votes of moderate Senators with his strong-arm tactics, including personal visits to their home states and ads equating them with those...cheese-eating, Bush-obstructing, Saddam-loving French.

It appears that he may be losing at least one, my junior Senator, Susan Collins of Maine.

Collins demanded that Republican leaders find room in the tax cut for state aid, including an infusion to Medicaid. ''This is a very important issue to me,'' Collins said. ''I am not issuing ultimatums, but I have made very clear to the leadership that I want to continue to work with them to ensure that the final package does contain fiscal relief to the states.''

Maine is currently facing a healthcare crisis, and may be forced to cut Medicaid to vulnerable seniors and disabled adults. Already respite care and other supportive services have been cut. Collins is caught between a constituency which does not support the Bush tax cut and a President who is demanding all Republicans fall in line (or on their swords?) for him.

For her part, Olympia has become more, not less, of a thorn in Bush's side. While previously she had merely stated her opposition to anything more than a $350 billion dollar plan, she has now added further conditions:

Snowe, who also holds the deciding vote on the Senate's tax-writing committee, said she could not accept Grassley's formula for reducing taxes on stock dividends paid to shareholders. Grassley wants to exclude one-third of dividends from taxes in 2003, two-thirds in 2004 and all dividends in 2005.

The policy would expire in 2006, when dividends again would be taxed like earned income at regular rates. ''I fear such a plan would be viewed as a gimmick that cloaks the true cost, in the theory that the plan would only be three years,'' Snowe said.

Snowe would instead allow taxpayers to exclude $1,000 in dividend income from taxation, a policy she said will cover 88 percent of taxpayers who receive stock dividends.

Snowe, it is obvious, it attempting to provide for moderate-income seniors who rely on dividend income, while avoiding the pitfalls of providing a huge tax give-away to the wealthiest stockholders. This doesn't sit well with Senate leader, Bill Frist, who "opposed Snowe's plan, arguing that it would give taxpayers more money to spend but would not do enough to change corporate behavior."

Frist is referring to the Senate's plan to only allow tax-free dividends from corporations who pay corporate taxes. However, that point may be moot, as the House plan to tax dividend the same as capital gains may remove that stipulation altogether. And a capital gains cut, while popular in Silicon Valley, isn't going to make it off the ground in rural Maine.

Bush had better hope he has more luck with the moderate Democrats he's bullying, than he has with the Mainiacs from his own party.

Quick, it's time set fire to an oil field...or two

Papers Show Expanded Halliburton Iraq Role
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

WASHINGTON, May 6 (AP) — An emergency contract the Bush administration gave to Halliburton to extinguish Iraqi oil fires also gave the company a more lucrative role in helping repair the country's oil system, documents showed today.

Representative Henry Waxman, Democrat of California, a critic of Halliburton, which was once run by Vice President Dick Cheney, said the administration was hiding the expanded role.

A spokeswoman for Halliburton, which is based in Houston, said the company's initial announcement of the contract on March 24 disclosed the larger role for its KBR subsidiary.

For the record, here's that March 24th press release:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: March 24, 2003
KBR IMPLEMENTS PLAN FOR EXTINGUISHING OIL WELL FIRES IN IRAQ
Company tapped for proven track-record, expertise

HOUSTON - KBR (Kellogg Brown & Root) has been awarded a contract from the US Army Corps of Engineers to put into action a contingency plan the company originally developed at the Department of Defense's (DoD) request for assessing and extinguishing oil well fires in Iraq and evaluating and repairing, as directed by the US government, the country's petroleum infrastructure. KBR is the engineering and construction subsidiary of Halliburton (NYSE:HAL).

KBR's initial task involves hazard and operational assessment, extinguishing oil well fires, capping oil well blowouts, as well as responding to any oil spills. Following this task, KBR will perform emergency repair, as directed, to provide for the continuity of operations of the Iraqi oil infrastructure.

However, according to the Times article,

The Army Corps of Engineers, in a letter to Mr. Waxman last Friday, disclosed that the no-bid contract covered not only the extinguishing of fires, but "operation of facilities and distribution of products."

Oh, I get it. You don't pump oil into tanks for distribution, you "spill" it. And since the whole Iraqi oil system has been kind of neglected for 12 years, you're not operating, but "repairing" it. And since we need to get that oil pumping ASAP, it's all an "emergency".

Silly me. And here I thought Bush&Co. were just engaging in subterfuge and cronyism again.

Proof that a little knowledge may lead to...

...more misinformation.

This past weekend, I wrote on the subject of Asperger's and autism, having come across an incendiary and erroneous post on the same subject. Silver Rights has followed up with another misrepresentation of fact: "It is an [sic] a tragedy that anyone's child has autism. However, I believe we hear a lot more about the ailment because so many of the childrens' parents are white and middle or upper-class."

But the truth is, autism affects children from all socio-economic backgrounds, regardless of race or ethnicity, equally.

In a recent CDC study of the prevalence of autism in suburban Atlanta, "researchers found the autism rate was no different among black and white kids." The only distinguishing variable is sex: four times as many boys are affected as girls.

Another recent report, Changes in the Population of Persons with Autism and PDD, found that a greater percentage of minority children were in fact being diagnosed with autism in recent years: "Notable changes in ethnicity during the 11 years of this study show a 13.6 percent drop in White persons with autism and a 6.5 percent increase in the Hispanic population." However, this study, as well as the one by the CDC, suggested the change was due to increased access to early intervention and diagnostic services for poor and minority children. The fact of the matter is that we hear more about autism these days because there is a lot more autism out there. Period.

Autism is a tragedy for everyone, whites, blacks, Indians, Latinos, and Asians. It affects children in the Bronx just as it does children in Beijing. But to assert that the current media interest is driven by race and economic position is not only false, but inordinately counter-productive, and discounts the magnitude of the tragedy for the economically disadvantaged. These children are most vulnerable as the most successful, yet expensive, treatments for autism are traditionally offered by state Medicaid-funded programs and school districts accessing federal IDEA monies. Asserting that poor and non-white children are not equally affected by autism provides fuel to those who would prefer to cut such programs in exchange for tax-breaks for big-business. That, I would argue, fits under no definition of liberalism I know.

More underreported [negative] poll numbers

I've only found a few news articles which reference this Harris Interactive poll released yesterday (and it's not available on the Harris website yet), but, once again, the news is not good for Bush's $726,000,000,000 tax cut.

The Harris Poll of 2,179 adults, taken April 17-23, showed deeper skepticism in the public:

* Only about one in five, 22 percent, support a "big tax cut." Some 27 percent support a smaller cut, meaning that slightly less than half of those surveyed favored any tax cut at all. Meanwhile, 21 percent want to keep taxes as they are and 13 percent want to roll back Bush's 2001 tax cuts....

* The deficit, expected to approach $400 billion this year, is of great concern. More than 80 percent said it would be a serious or very serious problem. And 77 percent said they would prefer to maintain current federal spending on Medicare or Social Security while only 15 percent said they'd prefer a tax cut if given a choice between the two.

Harris' poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

I still find it remarkable that polls which follow Bush's popularity glean more media coverage, many times over, than those which finger the pulse of the American voter.

Alabama Dems seem to know how to play the game

Perhaps some Congressional legislators need to pay attention.

Yesterday, I wrote on Bush's ballot dilemma. The GOP has found itself caught in between the Olympics and filing deadlines in a number of states in regards to the timing of its national convention, where it nominates its presidential candidate. One assumes that will be George W. Bush. Republican strategists leaked that their plans were to hold a late convention to provide momentum for the fall campaign season, with the added benefit of Bush's nomination have NYC, preparing for the second anniversary of the 9/11 terror attacks, as the backdrop.

Three states, Alabama, California and West Virginia, and the District of Columbia, have filing deadlines which fall before the planned nominating event. Alabama's legislature is controlled by Democrats. Apparently, they're not flat out against changing the deadline, but they have a price, and its a fair one. Suffrage for rehabilitated felons.

MONTGOMERY The House of Representatives today will consider bills to give former felons their voting rights back and extend an elections deadline so President Bush can appear on the 2004 ballot in Alabama.

The proposed work calendar already has caused grumbling from Republicans, the minority in the House, because the felon bill is first on the agenda. Second is a bill to require voters to show identification at the polls, and third is the presidential candidate legislation, both backed by GOP lawmakers.

"They're holding us hostage over felons," Alabama Republican Party Chairman Marty Connors complained Monday.

However, a top Democrat said Republicans were given the second and third bill slots in an attempt at fairness.

"All they're wanting to do is spin this. They're just trying to play partisan politics on something that is the right and honorable thing to do," said House Majority Leader Ken Guin, D-Carbon Hill.

Forty-one states have some process to automatically restore the voting rights of most felons, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Two states, Maine and Vermont, never strip felons of their voting rights.

The bill by Rep. Yvonne Kennedy, D-Mobile, would let felons register to vote again after they completed their sentences, finished probation and paid any restitution owed for their crime.

Now, former inmates must apply to the Alabama Board of Pardons and Paroles to have their civil and political rights restored. About 80 percent of the requests are granted, but there's a backlog of 2,000 applications because the process is so labor intensive for board employees, a board spokeswoman said.

The House has passed the felon restoration bill before, typically in tandem with the Republican-sponsored bill to require voters to show identification at the polls.

The GOP presidential ballot problem is caused by the Republican National Convention being held unusually late to avoid conflicting with the Olympics. The GOP won't choose a candidate, likely Bush, until Sept. 2. That's two days after Alabama's Aug. 31 deadline to certify presidential candidates.

The proposed legislation would extend the deadline until Sept. 5.

Guin said there's been no effort to block the Bush bill, but Connors argued it was getting linked to controversial issues. Republican lawmakers last month tried unsuccessfully to stop the felon bill from coming up for debate but did not hold a uniform voting line.

Of course, there is no guarantee that any of those released felons would vote for Democrats. But to Alabama Democrats, that is obviously not the point. Many in the legislature surely remember a time when large segments of the population were denied suffrage. Ironic that it's now the Republicans who would fight to continue that tradition.

Filibuster? What's that again?

The Senate has just finished debating the merit of yet another of Bush's conservative judicial nominees. This time, its Ohio Supreme Court Justice Deborah Cook to the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals. As PFAW have stated in their opposition to this nominee:

As reflected by the cases discussed below, in her tenure as a state court judge, Justice Cook has taken positions that threaten a number of constitutional and legal rights, particularly including those affecting workers and consumers, access to the courts, religious freedom, and public education. Justice Cook is a frequent dissenter on her court, reportedly the most frequent dissenter, and many of her dissenting positions, had they been majority rulings, would have harmed the rights and interests of ordinary Americans.

For example, Justice Cook dissented from the Ohio Supreme Court’s ruling striking down a state law that made it virtually impossible for workers to recover damages from their employers for injuries caused by the employers’ intentional wrongful conduct. Cook would have upheld the law. Her dissenting opinion in another case involving workers’ rights was harshly criticized by the Court majority as “confused,” “pure fantasy,” and “entirely without merit.” And Cook’s lone dissent from a Court decision protecting religious liberty rights under the Ohio Constitution would needlessly have harmed religious freedom by adopting a much-criticized opinion of U.S. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia pertaining to the federal Constitution. The Ohio Supreme Court refused to narrow its own state constitutional protections for freedom of conscience in such a manner.

This is one in a list of many nominees the Senate should reject, and the Democrats should utilize the filibuster as needed. Sutton never should have been given a pass; neither should Cook, though it appears she will be confirmed.

[Equally disappointing is that at least two of the Senator-Candidates are once again missing a confirmation vote in order to hit the campaign trail. Lieberman is in Cleveland, Kerry in Illinois. I haven't been able to track down Graham, but he announces his candidacy tomorrow in Florida. Only Edwards seems to be taking his Senate job very seriously. The other kind of remind me of how Bush views his office's responsibilities.]

From the Duh!-bya file

Even landing on an aircraft carrier off the coast of San Diego might not win you a single vote in California, in you're not on the ballot!

I knew about Alabama, but not California.

Bush faces write-in fate in some states
May 1, 2003

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- First came the news that Alabama officials might have to put President Bush on the ballot as a write-in candidate. It turns out Alabama isn't the only state wondering what it must do to ensure Bush's name appears on the state ballot next year.

The unusually late Republican convention--it does not begin until Aug. 30--is the problem. Bush is not scheduled to accept his party's nomination until Sept. 2, 2004, after the deadline for certifying presidential candidates in Alabama, California, the District of Columbia and West Virginia. Bills in the Alabama Legislature would move the deadline from Aug. 31 to Sept. 5, but if they don't pass, Bush would have to run in Alabama as a write-in candidate.

The biggest question might be in California, where election officials plan to begin printing about 15 million ballots almost immediately after its Aug. 26 deadline.

The GOP might have to drop the Davis recall effort and worry about a write-in campaign. With a Democrat-controlled House and Senate, it's certainly one big leverage chip.

Since I read this on the Note this morning, I thought I'd do some follow-up. According to the Sacramento Bee, the Secretary of State has been trying to fix the "problem":

Shelley and his legal team spent last week reading the fine print of state laws that, because of the late date of next year's national Republican nominating convention, are threatening to turn the president into a write-in candidate in the state with the most electoral votes.

Bush's nomination likely won't be official until Sept. 2, 2004. Meanwhile, California law says nominees' names must be in by Aug. 26 in order to leave enough time to print ballots. Shelley asked his lawyers whether the California deadline could be pushed back administratively. So far, they haven't found a way to do it without legislation. If a bill is needed to make the change, Shelley said, he'll draft the language and find a lawmaker to carry it.

Now, I'm a bit cynical, but isn't Rove&Co's decision to nominate Dubya so late due to their desire to use preparations for the WTC anniversary as a backdrop for their convention? Thus, I don't see any reason California Democrats should make it easy for Bush to use the deaths of 3,000 individuals for political gain.

Spectrum Syndromes

We live in a world of spectra; from skintone to age to religious beliefs. Our world is a vastly diverse one, and most of us believe we are all better for it. And while we don't consciously think of everything around us falling on one form of spectrum or another, just about any action, thought, attribute, etc., can be viewed subjectively. Well, at least, that's what PoMos like myself believe.

But in some instances we're actually used to framing ourselves using more broad parameters, such as the political spectrum. Human sexuality as well, with the general exception of social Neanderthals such Santorum. And perhaps nothing is so viewed in a spectrum framework as is behavior; there are no absolutes of good and evil, only varying shades of moral ambiguity.

My world, like many parents of autistics, revolves around a neurological spectrum. Not only do I view my own children on this spectrum, but I now tend to look at most people I meet through this lens as well. Few people are perfectly "typical" neurologically (NT, as we call it): most fall in between the extremes, with particular social and behavioral "quirks" we all take for granted. In some areas, the "median" on the neurological spectrum seems to shift: Silicon Valley, NASA and Cambridge, Massachusetts, tend to be more geeky than Main Street, USA, while Hollywood and Madison Ave., a little less so. Only in more recent years has attention turned to these bastions of nerdiness in an attempt to more formally describe its neurological character. Wired, a few years back, was one of the first to do so, with its article, The Geek Syndrome:

It's a familiar joke in the industry that many of the hardcore programmers in IT strongholds like Intel, Adobe, and Silicon Graphics - coming to work early, leaving late, sucking down Big Gulps in their cubicles while they code for hours - are residing somewhere in Asperger's domain. Kathryn Stewart, director of the Orion Academy, a high school for high-functioning kids in Moraga, California, calls Asperger's syndrome "the engineers' disorder." Bill Gates is regularly diagnosed in the press: His single-minded focus on technical minutiae, rocking motions, and flat tone of voice are all suggestive of an adult with some trace of the disorder. Dov's father told me that his friends in the Valley say many of their coworkers "could be diagnosed with ODD - they're odd." In Microserfs, novelist Douglas Coupland observes, "I think all tech people are slightly autistic."

Autism, ODD, Asperger's Syndrome? But aren't these terribly disabling conditions? How can we believe that some of our most successful enclaves of academia and Capitalism are populated by mental cripples and sociopaths?

Truth is, they're not. But not because many mathematicians, computer programmers and nuclear physicists don't fall on the non-NT end of the neurological spectrum. Truth is, they do. But because neurological diversity does not equate, as some have suggested, with untreated mental illness, even behavioral pathology. Both of those fall on their own spectra, neither of which should be confused with the neurological one; Santorum attempted a similar trick when he correlated the human sexual spectrum with the base end of the behavioral one. The bigoted Republican's deception was soundly rejected, as should be any similar tactics in regards to equating neurological difference, even disability, with mental or emotional disorders.

So what should we expect from individuals who may be to the neurological "left" (as in -brained) of many of us? Wired's Steve Silberman provides a bit of a glimpse in The Geek Syndrome. First, though, via Silberman, a quick description of the most common neurological condition most of us have already, or will someday, encounter, named for the Viennese pediatrician, Hans Asperger, who in 1943 first noted it:

Asperger's notion of a continuum that embraces both smart, geeky kids like Nick and those with so-called classic or profound autism has been accepted by the medical establishment only in the last decade. Like most distinctions in the world of childhood developmental disorders, the line between classic autism and Asperger's syndrome is hazy, shifting with the state of diagnostic opinion. Autism was added to the American Psychiatric Association's Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders in 1980, but Asperger's syndrome wasn't included as a separate disorder until the fourth edition in 1994. The taxonomy is further complicated by the fact that few if any people who have Asperger's syndrome will exhibit all of the behaviors listed in the DSM-IV. (The syn in syndrome derives from the same root as the syn in synchronicity - the word means that certain symptoms tend to cluster together, but all need not be present to make the diagnosis.) Though Asperger's syndrome is less disabling than "low-functioning" forms of autism, kids who have it suffer difficulties in the same areas as classically autistic children do: social interactions, motor skills, sensory processing, and a tendency toward repetitive behavior.

But those are kids; what about neurologically non-typical adults?

Clumsy and easily overwhelmed in the physical world, autistic minds soar in the virtual realms of mathematics, symbols, and code. Asperger compared the children in his clinic to calculating machines: "intelligent automata" - a metaphor employed by many autistic people themselves to describe their own rule-based, image-driven thought processes. In her autobiography, Thinking in Pictures, Grandin compares her mind to a VCR. When she hears the word dog, she mentally replays what she calls "videotapes" of various dogs that she's seen, to arrive at something close to the average person's abstract notion of the category that includes all dogs. This visual concreteness has been a boon to her work as a designer of more humane machinery for handling livestock. Grandin sees the machines in her head and sets them running, debugging as she goes. When the design in her mind does everything it's supposed to, she draws a blueprint of what she sees.

[note: Temple Grandin is a world renowned animal behaviorist at Colorado State University.]Most of us probably count amongst our friends and families individuals who fall on the less-typical end of the neurological spectrum; The Revenge of the Nerd genre is just lousy with examples, most, if not all of whom we'd prefer to associate with over the films' NT asshats.

Furthermore, ask any of us seeped in the intricacies of the neurological spectrum, and we'll spout off a list of well-known, suspected Aspies: Bill Gates, Thomas Jefferson, Albert Einstein. Last week, the media actually caught on to this:

Albert Einstein and Isaac Newton may have suffered from a type of autism, according to experts.

Researchers at Cambridge and Oxford universities believe both scientists displayed signs of Asperger's Syndrome.

Many people with Asperger's are often regarded as being eccentric. They sometimes lack social skills, are obsessed with complex topics and can have problems communicating.

This latest research suggests that Einstein, who is credited with developing the theory of relativity, and Newton, who discovered the laws of gravity, had these traits to varying degrees.

According to the researchers, Einstein showed signs of Asperger's from a young age.

As a child, he was a loner and often repeated sentences obsessively until he was seven years old. He was also a notoriously confusing lecturer.

Later in life, the German-born scientist made intimate friends, had numerous affairs and spoke out on political issues.

However, the researchers insist that he continued to show signs of having Asperger's.

"Passion, falling in love and standing up for justice are all perfectly compatible with Asperger's Syndrome," Professor Simon Baron-Cohen of Cambridge, one of those involved in the study, told New Scientist magazine.

"What most people with Asperger's Syndrome find difficult is casual chatting - they can't do small talk."

Thing is, while some people who are not neurologically typical exhibit other behaviors deemed "undesirable" in our society, such as severe mental illness and sociopathology, so do individuals who are not on the autistic spectrum. No one ever accused Hitler or Stalin of having Asperger's. And while Santorum may equate homosexuality with pedophilia and bestiality, all but those on the far end of the psychological spectrum can agree these arguments are without merit. Are there gay pedophiles? Sure. Are there Republican pedophiles? I recall one was just recently convicted in Maryland. Mixing apples and oranges make for good fruit salad, but bad stereotyping. Autism and Asperger's are misunderstood as is; there is no need to increase the confusion surrounding the conditions. And there is certainly no cause to belittle and stigmatize a socially vulnerable group for individual gain. That, in my opinion, falls on the low end of the personal integrity spectrum.

It's spreading... (and I'm not talking about SARS...)

Keep repeating the deja vu mantra. It's catching on. From the final paragraph of today's NYTimes analysis of the job-creation potential of the proposed $726,000,000,000 Bush tax cut:

In the short term, even if everything goes the administration's way, the economy's performance could still fall short of what Americans became accustomed to in the 1990's. With a slightly better economic trend and close to one million new jobs, the labor market in the months leading up to November 2004 might look about the same as it did in the months before President Bush's father lost the White House in 1992.

[oops - seems I left off 3 zeros above - fixed it]

So, what's the real unemployment number?

This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April unemployment figures. The rate, which had decreased from its high of 6.0% in December to 5.7% in January, due to a shell game "change in statistical calculations", crept up to 5.8 in March, and returned to 6.0% in April.

But a number of questions have been raised recently on exactly what does the "official" rate mean, and is it indicative of the actual employment picture in the US economy. Last weekend, the New York Times focused on the influence of long-term joblessness on the numbers, as these workers have been purged from the calculations in increasing numbers in the past few months. Yesterday, See the Forest asked what factors are included and does the BLS provide a number which includes such factors as discouraged workers, part-time due to economic factors, etc.

Well, the answer turns out to be yes and no. Or, I should say, the BLS provides that information, but only in "raw" numbers, i.e., not seasonally adjusted. It claims that somehow the information it needs to calculate the "real" unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, is "not available".

Funny, with a little digging, I was able to do it. By using archived reports, I was able to find those counted as unemployed, those not in the labor force but desiring employment, and those employed part time for economic reasons, e.g., no available full time jobs.

In the chart below, the green line indicates the "official" unemployment rate, which has increased from 4.2% in January, 2001, when George W. Bush took office, to this morning's release of the April, 2003 rate of 6.0%.

The blue line represents the portion of the civilian labor force officially unemployed, plus those not in the labor force, e.g., discouraged workers, who want a job. That rate has increased from 7.1% in January, 2001, to 8.8% in April, 2003.

The red line is that previous number (official plus "unofficial" unemployed) plus those workers holding down part-time work for economic reasons. That rate has shown the largest increase, from 9.4% in January, 2001, to 12.0% in April, 2003. According to this morning's release, "[t]he number of such workers increased by about 600,000" over the past year alone. In the past month, it increased by almost 150,000.

The Commissioner's Statement on the Employment Situation News Release gave more detail on the job situation, which in particular does not bode well for the manufacturing sector:

The decline in the nation’s nonfarm payroll employment continued in April, although at a more moderate pace, and the unemployment rate rose to 6.0 percent. The modest decrease of 48,000 in payroll employment (-80,000 in the private sector) follows steep declines in February and March that totaled nearly half a million jobs. Manufacturing had its largest job loss in 15 months. Travel-related industries, such as air transportation, hotels and lodging places, and amusement and recreation services, also were weak in April.

As measured by our survey of employers, factory payrolls lost 95,000 jobs in April, more than twice the average loss of the prior 12 months. Over-the-month declines were widespread, with notable losses in motor vehicles, fabricated metals, and electronic equipment. The factory workweek fell by 0.3 hour to 40.5 hours in April, and overtime edged down by a tenth of an hour to 3.9 hours.

Employment declines steepened in airline transportation, which shed 18,000 jobs in April. This industry has lost an average of 11,000 jobs per month since January. Passenger air travel has accounted for most of the decline.

So people aren't flying, there's less overtime and more people are working fewer regular hours. Sounds like a great "recovery".

Government budget cuts mostly haven't taken effect yet. Teachers don't get their pink slips for a few more weeks. Many others are safe until the end of the fiscal year (generally June 30th), but I'd say after that, all bets are off.

I called it...

The unemployment rate rose to 6.0 percent in April, and nonfarm payroll employment edged down by 48,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S.Department of Labor reported today. In April, job losses continued in manufacturing, some travel-related industries, and department stores.

The number of unemployed persons increased to 8.8 million in April, and the unemployment rate rose from 5.8 to 6.0 percent. The unemployment rate has ranged from 5.6 to 6.0 percent since November 2001. The unemployment rate for adult men increased by 0.3 percentage point to 5.6 percent in April. Jobless rates for adult women (5.1 percent), teenagers (18.0 percent), whites (5.2 percent), blacks or African Americans (10.9 percent), and Hispanics or Latinos (7.5 percent) showed little or no change.

Flashback Friday

And, not surprisingly, the focus in 1991 turned from the war with Iraq to...the Economy!

JOBLESS CLAIMS HIT 500,000 FOR 2D CONSECUTIVE WEEK
Associated Press
May 3, 1991

WASHINGTON -- The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits hit the half-million mark again in April as the ranks of those seeking help rose for the second consecutive week, the government said yesterday.

Also yesterday, the Conference Board, a New York business-research group, said fewer help-wanted advertisements appeared in newspapers during March, a further indication of an anemic job market. The board's Help-Wanted Advertising Index fell to 94 in March, down...

US CONSUMERS MAINTAIN A CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM
Paul Hemp, Boston Globe
May 1, 1991

American consumers maintained their cautious optimism about the future of the economy but are increasingly concerned about its present state, especially the problem of unemployment, a business research group said yesterday.

The Conference Board in New York said its index of consumer confidence was 79.2 in April, a slight dip from 81.1 in March, when it surged 22 points in response to the end of the Persian Gulf War.

But nearly four times as many people believe jobs are "hard to come by"...

MEDIA LETTER RAPS US FOR NEWS CONTROL IN GULF WAR
W. Dale Nelson, Associated Press
May 2, 1991

WASHINGTON -- Washington news bureau chiefs complained to Defense Secretary Richard Cheney yesterday that the Pentagon exercised "virtual total control . . . over the American press" during the Gulf War and said they will press for more open coverage of future military operations.

"Virtually all major news organizations agree that the flow of information to the public was blocked, impeded or diminished by the policies and practices of the Department of Defense," 15 news agencies claimed...

COURT RULES US NOT LIABLE IN PANAMA LOOTING SUITS
Laurie Asseo, Associated Press
May 2, 1991

WASHINGTON -- The United States is not liable for millions of dollars in looting damage suffered by Panamanian businesses after the 1989 US invasion of Panama, a federal judge ruled yesterday.

Courts do not have the power to second-guess government decisions on use of military forces, US District Judge Stanley S. Harris ruled in dismissing 16 lawsuits filed by dozens of Panamanian businesses...

BOOK SAYS POWELL FAVORED CONTAINMENT
IMAGE OF HARMONY ON GULF POLICY DISPELLED
Haynes Johnson, Washington Post
May 2, 1991

Last fall, Gen. Colin L. Powell, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had serious reservations about the Bush administration's shift toward an offensive military strategy in the Persian Gulf and repeatedly suggested that "containment" of Iraq through economic and military pressures could accomplish U.S. objectives short of war, according to a new book by Washington Post editor Bob Woodward...

REVENUE PICTURE IS UNPROMISING BUDGET LEADERS HEAR LITTLE GOOD NEWS, MULL CUTS
May 2, 1991
M.E. Malone, Boston Globe

After four hours of mostly gloomy testimony about the Massachusetts economy and what the state can expect to collect in tax revenues next year, three top budget officials said they will cut more spending rather than rely on hoped- for revenue growth to balance next year's budget.

"I don't know if we err on the high side if the state can recover," said the House Ways and Means chairman, Thomas Finneran (D-Boston). "We'll be in receivership."...

FACING UNFORTUNATE FACTS
IT'S TIME TO SEPARATE THE RECESSION FROM THE EUPHEMISMS
Hobart Rowen, Washington Post
May 2, 1991

At the end of last year, Economic Council Chairman Michael J. Boskin, after trying to cover it up by using the euphemism "lull," admitted that a recession was underway, but assured the public that the "worst was behind us" in the final three months of 1990.

It wasn't, and the future is at best uncertain, evidenced by Tuesday's reduction in the Federal Reserve Board's discount rate from 6 to 5.5 percent...

HOUSE YIELDS TO BUSH VIEW ON COVERT INTELLIGENCE BILL
Associated Press
May 2, 1991

WASHINGTON -- To the grumbling of some Democrats, the House yesterday approved a version of the 1991 intelligence bill stripped of oversight provisions that prompted a veto last year from President Bush.

The bill, authorizing spending for intelligence activities in a fiscal year already more than half over, was approved on a voice vote and sent to the Senate for further action...

DEMOCRATS CRY FOUL ON CLEAN AIR ACT QUAYLE ACCUSED OF BID TO SABOTAGE NEW LAW
Michael Kranish, Boston Globe
May 2, 1991

WASHINGTON -- Six months after President Bush signed clean air legislation that among other things is supposed to reduce acid rain dramatically in New England, key Democrats charged yesterday that Vice President Dan Quayle is leading a White House effort to sabotage the bill.

The Democrats said Quayle, acting in his capacity as chairman of the little-known Council on Competitiveness, is demanding more than 100 changes in the act's regulations on pollution permits. The proposed changes...

OVERHEAD CITED AS HEALTH-COST BEHEMOTH
TRIMMING THE HEALTH CARE BUREAUCRACY
May 2, 1991
Richard A. Knox, Boston Globe

Twenty-five cents out of every dollar the United States spends on medical care is consumed by a health care bureaucracy that is growing faster than any other component of the system, according to an analysis published today.

If administrative waste could be eliminated, the study's authors say, the nation would save enough to provide health insurance for the 34 million Americans who lack it....

AN EDUCATION IN COMPROMISE GRADUATES MAKING TOUGH CHOICES
Diane E. Lewis, Boston Globe
May 3, 1991

College seniors and even new MBAs are finding the economy tough one to graduate into this spring.

Corporate campus recruitment is down and many graduates say they are settling for less-glamorous jobs than they had originally hoped for.

Martin Chiu, who graduates with an MBA from the University of Massachusetts next month, is a good example. When he heard about the Massachusetts Miracle four years ago, he moved to Boston from San Jose, Calif. Now, Chiu, 27, is wondering what happened to...

ECONOMY'S RATE OF DECLINE SAID TO HAVE SLOWED
PURCHASING MANAGERS' VIEW SUPPORTED BY OTHER REPORTS
Reuters
May 2, 1991

The economy continued to contract in April, according to a monthly survey of purchasing managers at U.S. businesses released yesterday, but the rate of decline slowed for the third straight month.

In another sign that the recession may be bottoming out, the Federal Reserve yesterday offered some optimism in its so-called "beige book," a periodic survey of economic conditions seen by its member banks around the country...

One scoop, or two?

U.S. April ISM Manufacturing Index Falls to 45.4
By Carlos Torres
Washington, May 1 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. manufacturing contracted in April the most since October 2001 as new orders and employment declined, evidence that factories were slow to respond to the easing of tensions with Iraq.

The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index dropped to 45.4 last month from 46.2 in March. Those are the first back-to-back readings below 50, signaling deteriorating business, since an 18-month span ended in January 2002.

Now, I know that the mighty Alan Greenspan assured Congress, and by extension, the American public, yesterday that an economic recovery was just around the corner.

But Greenspan has been wrong before: To pull a few choice picks out of the old timewarp bag:

FED CHAIRMAN SUGGESTS THAT RECOVERY HAS BEGUN
REMARKS INDICATE FURTHER INTEREST RATE CUTS UNLIKELY
Paul Blustein, Washington Post
June 6, 1991

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan said today that recent evidence suggests the U.S. economy has begun to recover from recession, a prospect that makes unlikely further cuts in interest rates by the central bank to spur growth

Greenspan's remarks, though carefully couched, marked his first assertion that a recovery appears to be underway, in contrast to his earlier view that the recession that has gripped the economy since last summer finally may be reaching its end...

Or perhaps:

FED REPORT SETS STAGE FOR DISPUTE OVER GROWTH
CENTRAL BANK TARGETS SLOWER RECOVERY, LOWER INFLATION THAN ADMINISTRATION
John M. Berry, Washington Post Staff Writer
July 17, 1991

The Federal Reserve has set the stage for a continuing election year argument with the Bush administration over interest rates by aiming for slower economic growth and lower inflation in 1992 than the administration is seeking

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said yesterday that he expects a "robust" recovery now that the recession has ended.

Of course, Greenspan's pronouncement of the recession's demise was somewhat premature, and in the months following that assertion, the economy spiraled downward once again. Double-dipping, it was termed then. It still is.

An Emerging Democratic Majority...redux

Some heartening news for Democrats. Personally, I like these guys as they, like me, are obsessed with pulling trends out of raw data.

Deciphering the Democrats' Debacle
By Ruy Teixeira, Washington Monthly
May 1, 2003

Last year, John Judis and I published a book entitled "The Emerging Democratic Majority," which argued that a series of economic, demographic, and ideological changes was laying the basis for a new Democratic majority that would materialize by decade's end – not certainly, we argued, but very probably as long as the Democratic Party put forth decent political leadership to challenge the dominant, but dwindling, current Republican majority.

Our book arrived in stores last September. Two months later, in the midterm elections, the Republicans surprised nearly everyone by winning control of the Senate and further solidifying their majority in the House, unifying Republican control of the federal government for only the second time in half a century. Needless to say, this wasn't my ideal outcome. In the annals of publishing, this wasn't quite so unfortunate as, say, James Glassman's prediction of a 36,000 point Dow just before the 2000 stock market crash, but it still evoked a fair amount of understandable ribbing and forced me to think hard about our thesis. So after the election, I pored over survey data, county-by-county voting returns, and a great deal of underlying demographic data and thought long and hard about what the data showed. And as a result, I've decided that ... we're still right!

Read the whole article. It's a roadmap for a victory in '04, particularly for Kerry, Gephardt or my favorite, Edwards.

New Jobless Claims worse than expected...again

I thought perhaps there would be some honest-to-goodness positive economic news today (versus that which is merely spun as good news) as the newly-refunded Mass Layoff Report for March showed the 10th consecutive month that the number of initial claims declined. Since most recently laid-off workers get some form of severance, or have unused vacation time, they do not immediately file claims for unemployment compensation, but must wait until those residuals from their jobs run out.

Well, I was wrong.

The number of unemployment claims for this week, 448,000 was nearly as bad as last week's 455,000. Wait, once again the BLS had to revise the number upwards, to 461,000.

The whole report is available at the Department of Labor's website (or will be momentarily).

Tomorrow, April's unemployment figures come out. Anyone want to bet that there were more than the "expected" 60,000 jobs lost? I'd wager closer to 150K.

[Note: The Mass Layoff report document lay-offs of 50 or more employees. So while there are fewer incidents of layoffs from larger employers, smaller business may be cutting back. In light of this week's report indicating an unexpected jump in employment costs, including healthcare and pensions, it's not surprising that small businesses might be forced to make choices between keeping employees and maintaining benefits.)

[edited misstatement due to lack of coffee]